Events / Sean Calvert / 13 April 2009 /

Sean Calvert admits that backing a [1.4] shot is rarely exciting but at a time when interest rates on savings accounts are laughable, the chance to back Nadal to win at the Monte Carlo Masters may seem like a very safe and clever move.

You know things are looking bleak for Roger Federer when he starts coming out with statements like: 'thankfully the hard court season is over and I'm looking forward to the clay court swing'.

Those who thought that Fed's best chance of beating Rafa Nadal lay on the quicker surfaces are clearly wrong - the Swiss has a plan.

To lull Nadal into a false sense of security by losing to him on all Federer's favourite surfaces and then he'll shock the Spaniard by hammering him on clay where he least expects it. Genius!

The world number two couldn't have picked a better tournament than this week's Masters event in Monte Carlo in which to hatch his cunning plan, as he has been beaten by Nadal in the last three finals here, where the Spaniard has a 24-1 record.

And what makes it even more of a brilliant double bluff is the fact that Fed has never won here in eight attempts and lost to the likes of Vinny Spadea, Jiri Novak and Richard Gasquet in the past.

Nadal's only blemish is a 2003 defeat to Guillermo Coria and he is a [1.41] shot to make it five Monte Carlo titles in a row.

So, can anyone beat Nadal or is it worth ditching the zero percent savings account and lumping on the world number one for a nice 40 percent return on your investment?

The answer to that would have to be a resounding yes and I would advise anyone with any spare cash to do just that, but it's not much fun is it?

So, where are the dangers going to come from? Well, ironically, Nadal has some decent hard court players in his section, including Juan Martin Del Potro ([60.0)] who beat him in Miami.

I've personally never seen the lanky Argentine ply his trade on a clay court, but I can't imagine it to be pleasant viewing and Nadal should dispatch him with ease on the red dirt.

He also has Marat Safin ([1000]), who loves Monte Carlo (but for all the wrong reasons as far as a sports professional is concerned), in his section as well as last week's surprise Houston clay winner Lleyton Hewitt ([370.0]) and a couple of red dirt veterans in Nicolas Lapentti ([500.0]) and Juan Ignacio Chela ([520]).

The one who may give Nadal the most to do in the early rounds could be Gael Monfils ([100.0]), who has posted some decent results on clay this year, but then again Monfils never knows how he will play when he sets foot on court, so how are we supposed to second guess the Frenchman?

Further down Nadal's section we find Andy Murray ([16]) once again and the Miami champion has it all to prove on clay, having failed so far to recreate anything like his hard court form on the red dirt.

Most observers believe Murray's best chance of Grand Slam glory lies on hard courts and they're probably right, but the Scot loves nothing better than proving doubters wrong and he does have the game to be a decent clay courter given the right advice.

It will be very interesting to see how he gets on, having been thrashed by Novak Djokovic ([20]) last year and been dumped out in the first round on his only other start by Monaco's finest Jean-Rene Lisnard ([1000]), who always gets a wild card here.

The Scot has been given a kind draw with several low-grade clay courters in his opening section and hard court specialist Marin Cilic ([500]) as the seed before he would have to face possibly David Nalbandian ([40]) or Nikolay Davydenko ([190]) later on.

Of those I have a sneaking feeling that Davydenko might just pull off an upset and repeat his semi final showing of last year (lost to Nadal), purely on the basis that the Russian only goes well when you expect him not to, but it would be a huge shock if Nadal didn't make it to the final.

Federer's side of the draw is wide open with the Swiss playing the way he is currently and back-to-lay investors would be wise to include Tommy Robredo ([160.0]), David Ferrer ([60.0]) and Nicolas Almagro ([120.0]) on their short list.

Robredo has been hoovering up clay court events impressively on the South American swing, although he's never bettered the quarters here, but if he ever has a chance of beating the Swiss it is now.

Ferrer and Almagro are in Djokovic's quarter and although the Serb made the finals in Miami, he did it more by luck than judgement and his wayward groundstrokes will be found out on clay.

The other seed in that section is Fernando Verdasco ([36.0]), who has never won a match here in four attempts and seems to be slipping back to the 'old' Verdasco rather too quickly for my liking, so take Ferrer or Almagro to emerge there.

So, my advice for the Monte Carlo Masters would be to bite the bullet and invest all of your spare cash on Nadal at prohibitive odds and hope he doesn't get injured, because he surely won't lose this event for tennis reasons.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: