Events / Sean Calvert / 10 April 2011 /

The withdrawal of Novak Djokovic is a big disappointment to organisers and fans of this event and it's Rafael Nadal's to lose, but who is he most likley to meet in the final asks Sean Calvert.

The clay-court season began in Casablanca in bizarre and disappointing fashion last week, as my bet Albert Montanes fell in the semi finals.

The Spaniard lost a match more suited to the WTA Tour to compatriot Pablo Andujar, which featured eight breaks of serve in two sets whilst Montanes failed to take 15 of his 18 break point chances.

Spaniards will be to the fore again this week, as the first of the clay-court Masters 1000 events is upon us and unsurprisingly, Rafa Nadal is a warm order for the Monte Carlo Masters on the red dirt.

This event is only still on the ATP Tour calendar because Rafa and Roger Federer kicked up a stink when it was mooted to be removed. I can understand Rafa wanted it kept, as he has a 34-1 record here, but Fed has never won it and is 21-9.

The withdrawal of Novak Djokovic is a blow to the tournament and fans alike and it means that Nadal is around [1.4] to claim his seventh title in a row and it's hard to see who is going to stop him.

The draw has paired Rafa with Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray, both of whom accepted late wild cards into this event, and also Gael Monfils, who's coming back after a wrist injury.

Also in Nadal's half are Mikhail Youzhny, plus French trio Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

None of these are likely to pose much of a threat to Rafa, with the exception of Berdych and Murray, but both would have to be at the absolute peak of their respective games to have a chance and neither are at the moment.

Murray is nowhere near right now of course and is currently in the coaching hands of Adidas coaches - Darren Cahill and (Greg Rusedski's former coach) Sven Groeneveld.

The Scot is also reportedly considering an approach to Tim Henman in a partnership of shared top-level failure that would surely be a complete waste of everyone's time.

So, unless Rafa takes his eye off the ball, it's as near a certainty as you can get in sport that the world number one will be lining up in yet another Masters Series final. But who will he meet there?

The obvious choice is Federer, but losses here to Stan Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet, plus clay-court defeats to Montanes, Ernests Gulbis and Robin Soderling last year suggest it's worth going for a bigger priced player than the [6.0] currently on offer about the Swiss.

The way that Rafa dispatched Federer in Miami, on an admittedly slow hard-court, hints that the three-times Monte Carlo finalist is nowhere near closing the gap on his Spanish rival and others make more appeal in the bottom half of the draw.

David Ferrer is a candidate, after a 17-4 start to the season and the world number six has a 17-7 record here - his best coming last year when he reached the semis before running into Nadal.

Also in the mix is Nicolas Almagro, who enjoyed a fantastic Golden Swing on the red dirt in South America and others with chances include French Open semi finalist Jurgen Melzer, Fernando Verdasco and perhaps Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Verdasco reached the final here last year before getting thrashed by Nadal, but he was in much better form then and the Madrid man doesn't appeal much at around [50.0]. Dolgopolov is a bit of a long shot at [100.0], but is effective on clay and could spring a surprise. Melzer has it in him, but rarely brings it to the court.

As ever, Jean-Rene Lisnard gets a wild card on the basis that he's Monaco's only player and this year's opponent with a virtual bye is Viktor Troicki, although the world number 690 has beaten both Murray and Berdych here in years gone by.

All things considered, Ferrer looks to have the best chance of getting to the final and might be worth a back to lay bet at around [26.0], but surely only injury can prevent Rafa from taking yet another Monte Carlo title.

You won't get rich off it, but a near 40 percent return isn't too bad an investment all told.

Recommended bets

Back Nadal at [1.4]
Back to lay Ferrer at [26.0]

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