Events / Sean Calvert / 22 March 2011 /

In-form Sean Calvert tells us why Andy Murray has the right credentials to 'go deep' this week in the heat of Miami after a disastrous few weeks.

Novak Djokovic's gutsy win at Indian Wells last week made it a very profitable tournament for this column, with my outright bet on the Serb coming in at the advised odds of [4.8].

Nole is pretty much unplayable at the moment and he might well double up in this week's event, the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami.

He'll have to battle against recent trends to do it though, as no player since Roger Federer in 2006 has done the Indian Wells/Miami double.

The quick turnaround time between the two events makes it tough for those that reach the latter stages in California to prevail in Florida, so although I wouldn't put anyone off backing Djokovic, he's a bit short at [3.35] for me.

Whilst clearly the form pick, the exertions of last week might make him vulnerable, so although in woeful touch, it might make someone like Andy Murray at [12.0] a better bet.

Murray and Djokovic are both drawn in the same quarter, along with Fernando Verdasco, John Isner, Nikolay Davydenko and Viktor Troicki While the adjacent quarter in that bottom half of the draw looks wide open.

Robin Soderling, who suffered a foot injury in California, is paired with David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Ivan Ljubicic, Mardy Fish, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic and Michael Llodra.

That's a much tougher section than Djokovic and Murray's and probably the hardest to call of any of the quarters, with Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer both given fairly comfortable sections.

Rafa and Roger are seeded to meet in the semi finals here after Djokovic usurped the Swiss as world number two, which is the stage they last met at in Miami, way back in 2005 when Fed won a five setter.

That was 21 meetings ago, but the pair, surprisingly, haven't played each other at a Masters Series event on hard-courts (not counting the year-end championships) since then and it would be great to see them slug it out in the last four again in 2011.

In order to do that, Nadal must beat Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych, with the latter likely to pose the biggest threat.

The Czech began his fine run of 2010 here when he beat Federer on his way to the final and he also reached the semis in 2008, so he clearly enjoys playing here.

With Nadal yet to win the title in Miami, Berdych could be the one to take advantage of any drop in the Spaniard's physical level, which looked to be on the wane in the last set on Sunday's defeat to Djokovic.

At a price of [80.0] it's worth siding with the inconsistent Berdman on a back to lay basis this week.

Federer's quarter has defending champion Andy Roddick, Jurgen Melzer, Marin Cilic, Mikhail Youzhny and Gilles Simon in it, but I can't see any of those beating the Swiss after an improved effort at Indian Wells.

Fed showed some of his best form in the desert, but he hasn't done well here of late, which means I won't be backing him at his outright price of [6.0].

Roddick should be busting a gut this week with ranking points to defend, but Gasquet showed him up at Indian Wells and the American doesn't appeal at around [40.0].

The champion here in the last few years has been a decent price and this week I think it's worth siding with some of the longer shots that didn't make the latter stages in California, and this includes Murray.

The Scot is a backable [12.0] after some awful efforts of late and his Miami record shows his inconsistency, with three first round losses, one semi final and one tournament win from his five starts.

The defeat to Donald Young might sting him into action and Murray does enjoy it in Miami, so it's worth a speculative bet at a good price that he can come good again.

Juan Martin Del Potro isn't quite at the level to win this yet and has a tough section, while Soderling's injury is a concern, so I think the two to be on this week are two that enjoy these conditions and aren't tired. That profile means we have to side with Murray and Berdych.

Recommended bets:

Back Murray at [12.0]
Back to lay Berdych at [80.0]

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