Miami Masters Tips: Vamos Rafa...

Events / Ben Caudell / 03 April 2011 / 1

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Nadal can come out on top in what should be a Titanic struggle

"Nadal is not the player you want to meet if your energy levels are low."

We could be in for a classic as the world's best do battle in Miami. Ben Caudell looks for the best bets

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Its crunch time everyone, and boy do we have a mouth-watering final to look forward to this evening. The top-two ranked players on the ATP World Tour are all set for an epic battle with World No.1 Nadal looking to record his first tournament win in Miami and World No.2 Djokovic trying for a fourth straight title this year, and a second in Miami.

The Serbian enters the game armed with the third longest winning start to a season in the past 30 years, with a staggering 23 victories in a row. His last defeat was way back in November 2010, to Roger Federer in the semi-finals of the World Tour Finals.

But Nadal has been in fine form in Miami and I will be siding with the Spaniard who can be backed at [1.96] in the match odds.

Novak's streak has to come to an end soon, the Indian Wells and Davis Cup winner must be fatigued after his energy sapping run of wins. And Nadal is not the player you want to meet if your energy levels are low. The surface in Miami play's a lot slower than any other hard court and are more akin to clay.

The Serbian has admitted to feeling a little tired and stated that "I won't feel like the favourite on court. It's a final, so in order for me to win I will have to be on the top of my game."

The Spaniard on the other hand is adamant that he is playing at a higher level than last week in Indian Wells where the left-hander was defeated in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 by tonight's opponent.

"I am feeling well every day," he said. "It's not like Indian Wells last week. I wasn't playing well almost all tournament"

Furthermore, Nadal leads their head-to-head series 16-8 and has a 5-1 mark against Djokovic in finals, the world No. 1 has a 19-3 match record this season. At World Tour Masters, Nadal has become the all-time leader with 18 titles to his name.

And there are more stats that favour the Spaniard. Not since Roger Federer in 2006 has a player won back-to-back Indian Wells and Miami titles, only two players have ever defeated Nadal at least twice in a final (Roger Federer and Nikolay Davydenko).

The Miami courts are better suited to the Spaniard and the World No.1 has held serve in 47 of 48 games thus far, saving 12 of 13 break points. We also cannot ignore Nadal's impeccable performance against Roger Federer in the semi-finals in which the Mallorca native battered the Swiss Master 6-3 6-2.

All things considered, tonight's match should be a joy to watch and another close affair between the very best in the world. But both heart and mind say Djokovic will struggle to beat Nadal twice in a row, therefore I am siding with the Spaniard to record his first ever Miami title. Vamos Rafa...

Recommended Bet
Back Rafael Nadal @ [1.96]

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(1)

Anonymous | 03 April 2011

"Last time I played defensively but it's impossible to beat Djokovic like that. I have to be aggressive."
Nadal

Nadal will lose. He does not have answer on Djokovic game. He will try to be aggressive and it will open door to unforced errors.