Miami Masters Tips: Davydenko could go far this week

Events / Ben Caudell / 23 March 2011 /

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Nikolay is back and bidding to climb the rankings

"Davydenko is the understandable odds-on favourite to win tonight at [1.40]."

After a torrid 12 months, the one-time world number three could be in title contention this week. But first he has to overcome his big-serving round one opponent, says Ben Caudell.

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v Kevin Anderson (RSA)

Former world number three Nikolay Davydenko returns to Miami for the first time since picking up the title in 2008. He's hoping to regain some much-needed form after dropping to a seven year low of 42 in the ATP Tour World Rankings.

He broke his wrist last year at the Master Series event in Indian Wells and spent over three months sidelined. Poor form and poor results followed and the Russian was happy to see the back of 2010.

This year started well for Davydenko when he dispatched of Rafael Nadal in straight sets to reach the final of Doha at the start of the year, and he has since shown signs that he is finding his way once again.

I fancy Davydenko to go far this week, but first he must face the big-serving Kevin Anderson a player he defeated at last Years' Wimbledon in a five set thriller that lasted over four hours. Grass is Nikolay's least favourite surface so, back on his favoured hard courts, I expect him to win this match more convincingly.

The 29-year-old has a decent record in Miami (8-2) and loves playing on one of the slowest hard-courts on tour. He has won five of his last six matches when priced as moderate favourite, whereas Kevin Anderson has lost 13 in a row when priced as a moderate underdog, he also holds a better surface rating and match rating than his opponent and is the understandable odds-on favourite to win tonight priced at [1.40].

Anderson lacks the variety of a shot in his game required to throw the Russian off his impeccable timing, Nikolay is one of the best service returners and shot makers in the game. On these extremely slow hard-courts Andersons serve will have little impact to disrupt the versatility of Davydenko; therefore I can see this match being a straight forward win for the 2008 Champion.

Recommended bets:
Back Nikolay Davydenko to win match @ [1.4]
Back Davydenko -3.5 Games @ [2.06]

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