Events / Sean Calvert / 21 March 2012 /

Nole heads the market but Fed is desperate for back to back wins and Rafa looks dangerous. Meanwhile, what about up and down Andy? Sean Calvert looks for the value in Miami...

Things didn't go exactly to plan in Indian Wells last week, as my outright bet on Rafa Nadal was literally blown away by a combination of a storm and Roger Federer's racquet.

But there's no time to lament such things as the second Masters 1000 event of the year follows straight on in Miami with the Sony Ericsson Open 2012.

At the head of the market once again is Novak Djokovic, priced at around [2.95] to retain the title that he won by defeating Nadal in 2011.

Djokovic has a patchy record in Miami, having been beaten in his opening match twice in his last four appearances at Key Biscayne. However, on the other two occasions the Serbian made the final - winning one and losing the other.

He has a potentially tricky opening match this time, with most likely, a meeting with Marcos Baghdatis, who has given Nole some trouble on occasion. Indeed, the Cypriot has taken at least a set from the world number one in five of their six career meetings.

Should he emerge from that, Djokovic is in the same half of the draw as Federer and the same quarter as David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Bernard Tomic, Richard Gasquet and Viktor Troicki. But he looks at the moment like a man under pressure after last year's glories and [3.0] doesn't really tempt me.

In the adjacent quarter, Federer, who is seeking his first Miami title since back in 2006, is looking to emulate Djokovic by winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back.

The Swiss maestro's early opponents may include Ryan Harrison, Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils, Nico Almagro, Fernando Verdasco, Kevin Anderson and Mardy Fish.

Monfils, along with Ferrer, John Inser and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have been stuffing their respective wallets with exhibition cash at the Puerto Rico Tennis Cup over the last few days, which seems a waste of energy days before a Masters event.

But then, 'sensible' isn't a word that features too high on the radar of Monfils, who has been away injured from the tour recently - for a change. He also has a poor record in Miami, never having bettered the last 16.

Federer's toughest test might come early from Harrison, as I can't see the others coming close at the moment, although Federer isn't a big fan of the slowish courts here in Miami - but then again he's not a huge fan of Indian Wells either and look what happened there.

The bottom section is where perhaps the value lies, with Nadal never having managed to win this tournament - largely as a result of the lower bouncing courts that don't take spin as well as Indian Wells and Melbourne.

That said, Rafa has made the quarter finals or better for the last five straight years and reached the final in 2011, so he shouldn't be discounted from winning this at around [4.7].

His draw features potential opponents of the calibre of Tsonga, Isner, Kei Nishikori, Radek Stepanek, and not much else and it would be a surprise if Rafa didn't make at least the semi finals - where he is set to meet Andy Murray.

The Scot is a real enigma at this time of year, as his straight sets loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez showed at Indian Wells and he has lost here in his opening match on three of his last four appearances. Murray did win the title on the other occasion though, so it's anyone's guess how he will perform this time.

Logic would dictate that Murray should have a great chance at a price of around [9.0] after no exertion last week, but his draw is perhaps the toughest of any of the top four seeds.

Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, Janko Tipsarevic, David Nalbandian, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gilles Simon and Jurgen Melzer are amongst the names that await Murray, should he make it past his first match this time.

And that's no certainty, as he may face the in-form Denis Istomin, who beat Ferrer and took Delpo all the way in Indian Wells and made the finals of San Jose recently too.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murray won this tournament, but you can't back him with much confidence given his record here and instead I'll create a portfolio of back-to-lay shots this week instead of picking from the top four.

Berdych has to be the first name on that list, having made the final here in 2010, the semis in 2008, and the quarter finals last year. The inconsistent Czech should be the one to take advantage of any Murray slip and a price of around [70.0] has got to be snapped up in my opinion.

At a ridiculous price of [550.00] there's Nishikori, who should relish the conditions here and has beaten Djokovic, Berdych and Tsonga recently on hard-courts. His form lately is a worry, but at a price that size, it's hardly a gamble.

Tsonga himself, despite his pretty average record in Miami has a great draw, with only a tired (but not too tired for exhibitions) Isner in his section and a good recent record against Nadal.

The surface here should suit him better than Indian Wells and at [60.0] is certainly worth a back-to-lay punt.

Recommended Bets (all back to lay)
Tomas Berdych at [70.0]
Jo Wilfried Tsonga at [60.0]
Kei Nishikori @ [550.00]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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