Miami Masters Betting: Novak to make light work of it

Events / Ben Caudell / 29 March 2011 /

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Novak Djokovic is virtually unplayable at the moment

"The question regarding tonight’s match is not whether Novak will win, but instead how comfortably."

It's an all-Serb clash in Miami today and it's hard to see the prohibitively short-priced Novak Djojovic losing this one to Viktor Troicki. We must therefore go in search of alternative betting options, says Ben Caudell.

Fellow compatriots and close friends Novak Djokovic and Viktor Troicki of Serbia go head-to-head on the hard-courts of Miami for the second time in two weeks and the seventh time in the space of 13 months. A place in the quarter finals is up for grabs.

Combined with three matches in their history from previous years - Djokovic leads the head-to-head series (8-1) - and accompanied by the fact that the Serbians have joined forces and have competed together as doubles partners on several occasions, we can safely make the assumption that both Djokovic and Troicki know each other's games inside out.

With both players' confidence boosted by their famous Davis Cup win over France at the end of 2010, it has recently been Novak Djokovic who has taken all the plaudits. His exceptional form has seen the 23 year-old overtake Roger Federer at Number 2 in the world rankings, retain the Australian Open title he won in 2008. He is incredibly yet to be defeated in 2011, going on an impressive run of twenty matches without a loss.

The question regarding tonight's match is not whether Novak will win, but instead how comfortably. Djokovic eliminated Troicki from the Indian Wells draw this month in a fourth round match that was over in a flash thanks to an imperious demolition. So far at the Miami Masters Djokovic has dropped just three games, defeating James Blake 6-2 6-0 and Denis Istomin 6-0 6-1. In similar fashion, prior to playing Troicki in Indian Wells, the Australian Open champion recorded victories over Ernest Gulbis (6-0 6-1) and Andrey Golubev (6-0 6-4).

The stats are overwhelmingly in Novak's favour coming into this match and the standout bet for me is to back under 18.5 Games in the Total Games market @ [1.87]. On average, the Serbian has played 16.8 Games per match from his last 12 on hard-courts. Out of interest, if we discount games against Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, this average lowers to 15.5 games per match. Our recommended bet for today represents plenty of value.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 18.5 Games @ [1.87] - Total Games Market

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