Events / Ben Caudell / 31 March 2011 /

Roger Federer is up against Gilles Simon today in Miami and there are plenty of reasons to suggest the Frenchman will give him a really good game. So bet accordingly, says Ben Caudell.

Gilles Simon will be relishing the prospect of avenging his 2011 Australian Open defeat at the hands of Roger Federer tonight and securing a place in the semi-finals of a Master Series event, for only the third time in his career.

The Frenchman clawed himself back from two sets down to even it up at two sets apiece during his second round Australian Open match against Swiss legend Roger Federer, before a single break of serve in the fifth eventually gave the world Number 3 the upper hand as he went on to record his first win against the French grinder (6-2, 6-3, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3).

During the post-match interview, Federer went on to say "This is the first win I've had against him; every time we played we go the distance, so hopefully we don't play each other anymore".

Unfortunately for Roger, another meeting with his nemesis has come sooner than he'd like, and we can now look forward to another slogging match on a court Federer himself admits to playing more like a slow clay-court than hard.

Simon leads the head-to-head series 2-1 with all three matches played on hard and all three going the distance. Simon won the first two head-to-heads against the legend in 2008 and at Master Series level (Toronto and Shanghai); on all three occasions Simon has lost the first set.

The 26 year-old and former world Number 6 is appearing in his third World Tour quarter-final or better this season and he enters it with a 14-7 match record (13-6 on hard). His best result came in January when he captured his eighth career title in Sydney.

Simon will prove to be a far tougher test for the Swiss master than in previous rounds; the court surface will further play into Simon's hands with his brick wall style of defensive play hopefully frustrating Federer into making unforced errors.

I can see tonight's battle mirroring all three match-ups played so far between the pair. The odds on a Simon win at [6.0] cannot be ignored and therefore a back-to-lay bet at this price is a must. I also suggest a look at the +4.5 game handicap market in favour of Simon, especially since both of his best- of -three set match wins he's played against the former world No. 1 have been well below this handicap line.

Recommended Bets:

Back Gilles Simon @ [6.0] to win match (trade out at even money)
Back Simon +4.5 Games @ [1.90]

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