Events / Sean Calvert / 12 July 2010 /

Sean Calvert turns his betting eyes to the Mercedes Cup where Nikolay Davydenko is a weak favourite and a man reknowned for bottling it can prove he's a changed man...

I told you last week not to mess with the 'Casino Curse' at Newport and it came up trumps once again, with number one seed Sam Querrey falling in the second round to world number 108, Dustin Brown.

My [80.0] longshot Frank Dancevic gave everyone a good run for their money as he narrowly failed to reach the semi finals after a bad- tempered last eight clash with Mardy Fish in which the latter was given a code violation for swearing and the pair barged into each other angrily at the changeover.

That's it then for grass for 2010 and the rest of July holds a mixture of clay and hard court tournaments ahead of the North American hard court season in August.

There are two clay events this week, the most competitive of which looks to be the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart, Germany, and it's there where the value lies this week.

The market is headed by number one seed Nikolay Davydenko, who is scheduled to play his first clay court event in almost a year.

I say scheduled, because Davy has a habit of occasionally giving these sort of events a miss due to some injury or other and he is coming off the back of some tough hard court tennis in the Davis Cup, where he lost to David Nalbandian and won a four-setter against Eduardo Schwank.

The Russian has been priced up at what looks a rather skinny [3.0] considering that he hasn't played competitively on clay since winning Umag last August and that he's still in the early stages of his comeback from a broken wrist.

His form, as you would expect, has been patchy after three months out and he's never been further than the last four here, so it's a tall order for Davy to take the title here, all things considered.

He also has quite a tricky draw, with a likely match against defending champion Jeremy Chardy scheduled for as early as the second round.

Elsewhere in the top half of the draw, Gael Monfils, PhilippKohlschreiber and last year's runner-up (in both singles and doubles) here Victor Hanescu, who presumably won't feel the need to spit at any spectators this week.

Monfils is another player who has had his problems with a wrist injury this year and he has only played nine matches on clay since last year's French Open, with his best effort being a quarter final in Madrid in May.

The Frenchman will be on something of a high though, after helping his country to a great win over two-time defending Davis Cup holders Spain at the weekend, but he holds limited appeal here at around [9.0].

Kohlschreiber hasn't played since losing to Andy Roddick at Wimbledon, but he has had a decent campaign on clay this year and he could prove the best bet in the top half at a price of around [9.0].

The bottom half of the draw looks the place for the value though and this is a great opportunity for Jurgen Melzer to reaffirm his recent improvement in form.

The Austrian is seeded two here and he has that winning mentality at the moment after his run to the semis at Roland Garros was backed up by a good performance at Wimbledon, where he won the doubles title with Philipp Petzschner.

At the age of 29, Melzer is at a career high of 15 in the world rankings and has gone some way to removing his unwanted moniker of Jurgen Meltdown after formerly being one of the most mentally fragile players on the tour.

He may have to beat his doubles partner en route to the last four in Stuttgart, but more likely obstacles are Spaniards Juan Carlos Fererro and Albert Montanes.

Melzer has a 5-1 head-to-head advantage over Montanes, but a 2-4 deficit to Ferrero. However the latter is in really poor form at the moment after starting the season on fire.

Also in the bottom half is Gilles Simon, who has shown nothing since coming back from a longstanding knee problem and is not great value even at around [20.0].

Recommended bets: -

Lay Nikolay Davydenko at around [3.5]
Back Jurgen Melzer at around [7]

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