Events / Sean Calvert / 11 July 2011 /

A case could be made for eight or ten different players to win this tournament but we're actually going to side with one who could make this one his first-ever ATP tournament win, says Sean Calvert.

The grass court season is over and it proved to be a profitable one for readers of this column, with money made at Queen's, Wimbledon and last week in Newport, where my [15.0] tip, Olivier Rochus made the final and was available to lay at [2.0] at one stage.

Unfortunately, the little Belgian lost out to John Isner in that title match and Isner became the first number one seed to win at Newport in 35 years, but Rochus proved to be an excellent trade.

July brings the last of the summer's clay court events and the start of the North American hard-court season, but that's in a few week's time and this week's main event is the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart, Germany.

Number one seed this week is Gael Monfils, who should be fully acclimatised to the courts, having played in France's win over Germany at the same venue a few days ago.

Lamonf reached the final of the Mercedes Cup last year, but in typical fashion, he retired in that championship match, handing the title to Albert Montanes.

The Frenchman has also just split with his coach, Roger Rasheed, so it's questionable that he'll be fully focussed on this tournament after his Davis Cup efforts.

Jurgen Melzer has found life a little difficult since breaking into the top-10 in the world and his results of late have been poor - particularly on clay, with losses to Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Florian Mayer and Lukas Rosol in his last three red dirt events.

Beating Roger Federer in Monte Carlo seems to have had no benefit at all on Melzer's game and he's been poor ever since in singles, although his doubles results have been very good.

Mikhail Youzhny's clay court form has been below par in 2011, with his best result on the dirt in seven tournaments this year being a third round finish at Roland Garros and overall he's 6-8 on clay.

The Russian has also lost in Stuttgart in his opening match on his last three visits and since winning there on debut in 2002, he's won just three matches in the Mercedes Cup.

He did show some signs of a return to form at Wimbledon in defeat against Federer though, so he shouldn't be totally discounted in a tournament such as this at around [11.0].

Youzhny and Monfils have been drawn in the top half along with Andreas Seppi, who has been playing well lately and could be a dark horse this week, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who's playing only his third event of the year.

The other possibility in the top half is Florian Mayer, who plays well in Germany, reaching the final of Munich and winning all of his matches in Dusseldorf - both this year.

He'll also be attuned to the courts, after losing a five setter to Richard Gasquet in Davis Cup last week and he's one for the shortlist at around [11.0].

The bottom half of the draw is wide open, with Nikolay Davydenko Gilles Simon, Albert Montanes, Fabio Fognini, Jeremy Chardy and Radek Stepanek all with a chance of making the final, as well as Melzer.

Defending champion, Montanes is around [15.0] with points to retain from last year and after finding his best form at Roland Garros, where he lost a marathon to Fognini, but he has a tough first round match against Simon.

Fognini is making his first appearance since that match and he's not without a chance either at around [34.0].

Simon hasn't been in the best of nick on the red dirt this year, but he showed signs of improvement in Paris, so he could figure at around [8.0] if he makes it past Montanes.

Davydenko looks poor value at [6.5], having not made it past the second round of his last four tournaments, and he lost in the first round here last year, although he did win in Munich just before Roland Garros.

All-in-all then, it's a tough event in which to pick a winner in, with half of the 32-man field in with a chance on their best form by my reckoning, so with full pockets after a good grass season, take a chance on Mayer to come good on his home courts at around [11.0] and win his first ATP title.

Recommended bet:

Back to lay Mayer at around [11.0]

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