Events / Sean Calvert / 02 May 2011 /

We haven't seen much of Novak Djokovic on clay yet this season and he'll probably have to beat Rafael Nadal in the final to win this title. But he's more than capable of doing just that, says Sean Calvert.

The ATP Tour heads to the Spanish capital this week for the second of the Masters 1000 clay-court events and this is the one where we might just be able to get Rafa beaten.

The Mutua Madrid Open switched to clay from hard-courts a couple of years ago and despite winning it last year, Rafa Nadal doesn't enjoy the conditions here at altitude and the pacy courts can catch him out.

The world number one was defeated by Roger Federer here in 2009 and pushed to the limit by Novak Djokovic in the same year, so if you're ever going to be brave enough to lay Rafa on the red dirt, this is your chance.

Rafa will start at around [1.58] and his main rivals in the top half of the draw are Federer, Robin Soderling, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nicolas Almagro, Jurgen Melzer, Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny.

That's not the easiest of draws, with Marcos Baghdadis a likely first opponent and Del Potro or Youzhny next up. It will be particularly interesting if it's Del Potro, as the Argentine warmed up well for this last week in Portugal by winning Estoril for the loss of just one set.

Federer is available to back at around [15.0], which is a big price based on his previous form here, where the Swiss has won it and reached the final in the two clay-court stagings of this event.

Fed's recent red dirt form has been patchy though, with losses to Melzer and Soderling in his most recent clay events, but he still stands a decent chance in these quick conditions.

Soderling, as I mentioned last week, is going through his usual pre-Roland Garros slump and that continued in Estoril, where he was comfortably beaten by Del Potro.

The Swede has only won one match here on clay and we can't be confident he's all of a sudden going to find some form just yet.

The bottom half looks less competitive, with Novak Djokovic looking the most likely player to reach the final, which would be his first in Madrid.

Nole warmed up for this by winning his first clay event of the year in Belgrade last week and his main rivals in terms of seeding are David Ferrer, Andy Murray, and Tomas Berdych.

Ferrer also stands out as a potential finalist as the number two player on clay in terms of wins, with 13 in 2011 and just two losses - both to Nadal.

I'm not convinced that conditions will play into Ferrer's hands this week though and he's not great value at around [28.0].

Murray has an excellent 13-4 record in Madrid, but most of those wins came when it was staged on hard and he hasn't bettered the quarters on the red dirt here, although he did show great form in Monte-Carlo.

The Scot's semi final effort in taking a set off Nadal was excellent and he has a pretty good draw this week to perhaps do the same again.

Murray has Berdych, Gael Monfils, Juan Monaco, Gilles Simon, Ivan Ljubicic, Viktor Troicki and Nikolay Davydenko in his section, with the latter perhaps a dark horse this week.

The Russian came back to form last week in Munich where he won the title and if he can continue in that vein he should be a threat this week at a price of around [100.0].

Davy's poor record in Madrid might be misleading as in his one appearance on clay here he won two matches before scratching against Andy Roddick in 2009.

As for Berdych, well, his clay court season hasn't begun yet due to flu, so it's hard to see him being a factor at all this week at around [55.0].

But Djokovic has now won 33 matches in a row and is unbeaten since the end of last season in London. His confidence is such that the switch to clay hasn't bothered him - he didn't drop a set in Belgrade.

The incredibly close encounter with Nadal here in 2009 shows that in the right conditions, he can compete on the dirt and of course Nole has improved out of sight since then so he has to be the bet at around [5.5].

Recommended bets:

Back Djokovic at [5.5]
Long shot: Back Davydenko at [100]

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