Madrid Masters Tips: Murray to beat the handicap

Events / Ben Caudell / 04 May 2011 /

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Andy Murray will have taken huge confidence from his recent super run at Monte Carlo

"The Scot’s belief in his ability will no doubt transcend into further results on the dirt prior to the French Open which gets underway later this month."

Gilles Simon is a wily and resilient opponent but stats and form suggest it should be a pretty comfortable match for Andy Murray, says Ben Caudell.

Gilles Simon (FRA) v Andy Murray (GBR)

Andy Murray starts his Madrid Masters campaign on Wednesday against Gilles Simon of France, a player he is familiar with facing, and one who he leads 5-1 winning in the head-to-head series.

The number four seed will face the dogged Simon for the second time in a month, having dispatched of the Frenchman in his own back yard at the Monte Carlo Masters a couple of weeks ago. Although that match was tarnished by the fans' lack of respect for Murray's tactics of constantly using the drop-shot to further inflict pain on the already injured Simon, the Brit's overall tournament performance was as good as I have seen on the red-stuff in a long, long time.

In fact, after Murray's win over Simon, the Australian Open finalist went on to cause Rafael Nadal a few problems in the semi-finals, taking the greatest clay court player of all-time to three sets despite an elbow problem that later caused him to withdraw from Barcelona a few days later.

Murray's new found form on the clay has given the 23 year-old supreme confidence, having stated recently that he feels at home on the surface. He is even talking of a breakthrough Grand Slam success: "I feel good, I had a couple of bad months, but feel great again, I feel like I can win Grand Slams, I think I will win one," Murray said in a recent interview with Sky Sports.

The Scot's belief in his ability will no doubt transcend into further results on the dirt prior to the French Open which gets underway later this month. Plus, Murray does enjoy playing in Madrid. He's got an 8-2 record in the Spanish capital, reaching the quarter-finals in 2009 and 2010 and triumphing when the tournament was held on indoor hard in 2008 - where he defeated Simon in straight sets. He will be further buoyed by the fact that Simon said that this is a truly terrible match-up for himself. It's also worth noting the Frenchman's performances against top 10 players; he has lost six in a row.

From the pair's six previous meetings, Murray has failed to win by more than 3.5 games on only two occasions, therefore my best bet is to back Murray -3.5 Games at around [1.8] in the handicap market.

Recommended Bet:

Back Murray -3.5 Games @ 1.8

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