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Madrid Masters Daily Tips: Is Fed's poor run about to get worse?

Events RSS / / 13 May 2010 /

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Roger Federer faces a tough test from his compatriot

Roger Federer faces a tough test from his compatriot

"Although Federer has a 4-1 head-to-head lead against Wawrinka, their only clay court match was won by the Swiss number two in straight sets at last year's Monte Carlo Masters."

The Swiss number two pulled off a shock last year when he beat the Swiss number one in straight sets on the red stuff. Ben Caudell wonders if he can do it again.

Roger Federer (SWI) v Stanislas Wawrinka (SWI)

Ordinarily, you would expect today's all-Swiss clash between Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka to end in victory for the world number one.

After a surprise semi-final loss to Albert Montanes in Estoril last week, the defending Madrid Masters champion insisted he was not worried about his form. After Madrid, there's just one more week of preparation for the French Open and against Wawrinka tonight, Federer can ill afford to be as nervy and underprepared as he has been recently.

Federer's best showing since his win at the Australian Open was a semi-final loss in Estoril and prior to that he lost in the second round of Indian Wells, the third round in Miami, and the first in Rome.

It's alarming to see such a large price of [1.45] offered on Federer, against a player ranked outside the top 20, no matter what surface the match is played on. This is testament to the strides that Wawrinka has taken this year. His preparation has been considerably more hectic than Federer's; Madrid is his fifth clay court tournament in the space of five weeks, which includes a win in Casablanca, and he's currently 7-3 in all matches.

Although Federer has a 4-1 head-to-head lead against Wawrinka, their only clay court match was won by the Swiss number two in straight sets at last year's Monte Carlo Masters. With Federer in a state of disarray, this match could go the same way.

Selection: Back Stanislas Wawrinka @ [3.5] to win match
Lay Federer 2-0 @ [1.92]

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