Events / Ben Caudell / 16 May 2010 /

Nadal is the master on clay but the Madrid Masters is one of his least favourite tournaments and the world no.1 could capitalise

Roger Federer (SWI) v Rafael Nadal (ESP)
The top two seeds in the Madrid Masters Series Event, World No.1 and defending champion Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal will battle it out for today's championship trophy for the second year in a row.

Nadal came into the tournament ranked No.3 in the world but will move back to No.2 on Monday after a very strong run of results. However, the clay court master has a lot to do if he is to oust Federer at the top of the rankings, a position Nadal held as far back as August 2008.

Today's match between two of the greatest players ever to grace the game will be the 20th meeting between the pair. Nadal leads the rivalry 13-7 (9-2 on clay), including 11-5 in finals, and the Spaniard has won five of he last six meetings. This is their first clash since last year's final which Federer won 6-4 6-4.

Both players came through their semi-finals in three sets yesterday, Nadal overcame a shaky start against fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro where he lost the first set with a surprising amount of unforced errors. The clay court legend found it hard to get into any kind of rhythm and was often pinned back by Almagro's powerful display of accurate aggression. It was inevitable that Nadal would find his form at some point and Almagro would start to feel the pressure, and that moment came at 15-40 down in Nadal's first service game of the second set when suddenly a switch was turned on in Rafa's head. The rest is history. From then on Nadal had the decisive mental edge after holding serve and went on to win 4-6 6-2 6-2.

The Madrid Masters is probably the Spaniard's least favourite clay court tournament of the season because it is played at altitude, which means the balls travel a lot faster through the thinner air and bounces higher than at sea level. Federer will be relishing this prospect of testing his clay court abilities against the very best there is but the Swiss master will know that if Nadal wins today the prospect of retaining the French Open this year will be a tougher ask. I believe that this is Roger's best chance of defeating the Spaniard on the clay and therefore will be backing him with the intention of trading out at a lower price. I also believe that this match will be won in three sets.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Nadal 2-0 @ [2.04]
Back Three Sets @ [2.48]
Back Roger Federer @ [3.7] to win match with the intention of trading out at even money

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