Events / Ben Caudell / 05 May 2011 /

Nadal is the undisputed king of clay and he should, as ever, find some way of beating Juan Martin Del Potro.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Juan Martin Del Potro

Thursday's pick of matches involves a pair of Grand Slam winners that will take centre stage and top billing at the Madrid Masters this evening.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro - the 2009 US Open Champion - for the ninth time in his career and for the second time in 2011; he currently leads their head-to-head series 5-3.

The Spaniard, who won this event last year defeating Roger Federer in the final, will have his work cut out today against the Argentine who looks to has finally recovered from a wrist injury that kept him out of the most part of the 2010 season. Del Potro has gone from strength to strength since his return and is a strong contender as the number one threat to Nadal's 2011 French Open campaign; he is currently joint-third favourite with Roger Federer, priced at [20.0].

There is no doubting Rafael Nadal's credentials on the clay, he is by far the best player to have ever graced the dirt and his statistics on the surface speak wonders. The Mallorca native has amassed 35 wins in a row on clay and is now 187-6 overall on the surface since 2005.

But the altitude and the stadium courts here play more like an indoor court than outdoor and help the bigger servers in the game with the speed of ball in the air a lot faster than at any other clay court tournament. This was highlighted when Del Potro won 80 per cent of service points to cruise past Marin Cilic 6-3 6-0 in just 64 minutes. His big serve could again benefit the Argentine when he faces Nadal tonight.

The Tandil native's recent form has been up there with the best. He won the Estoril Open last week defeating the number one and two seeds Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco respectively( both in straight sets) and he's won seven in a row on clay, seven of the last eight in Madrid and seven in a row in Europe.

Although it's extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market. From their previous six best-of-three set matches the pair have played, only two have been won by Nadal by more than 4.5 Games. Furthermore, since the court surface change from indoor hard to clay in 2009, Nadal has won by this same margin of games just four out of his last ten matches.

Recommended Bets:

Back Del Potro +4.5 Games @ [2.0]

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