Events / Ben Caudell / 11 May 2010 /

David Nalbandian may have a formidable record in Madrid but he faces a tough match today against an opponent who is in the form of his life. Meanwhile, Dementieva's hopes may be about to hit a wall. Ben Caudell selects the best bets.

David Nalbandian (ARG) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)

The Madrid Masters is one of the most prestigious clay court events on the tennis circuit and has always been a successful hunting ground for Argentine David Nalbandian. The former Wimbledon finalist, who plays Tomas Berdych in today's late night show piece, has never lost at this stage of the tournament. In 2007 he played arguably his best Master Series event of his career, defeating Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer to be crowned champion. He also managed to reach the final in 2004 and semi-finals in 2005 and 2006.

Although Nalbandian's form at the Madrid Masters has been an example for others to follow, I believe this past statistical information is irrelevant now that the tournament has moved from indoor hard courts to outdoor clay surfaces. We should not get too excited about backing the Argentine just yet; firstly, his return after a nine month absence has meant that his ranking has slipped to 149 in the world. Secondly, he is playing an inspired Tomas Berdych, who is in the form of his life and a completely different player to the man Nalbandian defeated in the 2008 and 2007. Both these matches went to three sets; in fact, four of the five previous meetings have all gone to the final set. Nalbandian leads the head-to-head series 4-1.

The odds reflect just how close this match is to call and I believe we will witness yet another three set encounter. However, Nalbandian will be returning after a three week layoff due to his recurring injury and although he is pleased with his recovery, I just have a feeling that Berdych will be the one who makes it through to the next round.

Recommended bets:
Back Tomas Berdych @ [2.06] to win Match
Back Three Sets @ [2.1]

Alexandra Dulgheru (ROU) v Elena Dementieva (RUS)

I believe there is definite value in backing the Romanian in another of today's late matches. The clay specialist is playing in her fifth tournament of the year on the dirt, while for Dementieva, who has played only one clay court tournament in 2010, this is probably her least favourite surface.

Dulgheru is a player shows a lot grit and determination and Dementieva will find it hard to break her down. Without a big serve to rely on, she may feel like she is playing against a brick wall.

Today's match will be the first time these two have met, so my best bet would be to back the handicap market Dulgheru +4.5 Games as a saver and small bet on the Romanian to reach the next round

Recommended bets:
Back Alexandra Dulgheru @ [4.1] to win match
Back Dulgheru +4.5 Games @ [2.0]

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