Events / Ben Caudell / 14 May 2010 /

Andy Murray has had a good run in Madrid on his least favoured clay surface but he now comes up against dirt-rat David Ferrer. And that should mena the end of his participation in this tournament, says Ben Caudell.

Andy Murray has finally found his feet on the European clay as he continued his impressive return to form with a straight sets win over Victor Hanescu or Romania 6-2 6-1. The Fiery Scott, who in the first round defeated clay court specialist Ignacio Chela in similar imperious fashion, has come on leaps and bounds since his nightmare start to the clay court swing. This is the fist time since early March that Murray has won two matches in a row; the previous time was at Indian Wells where the Scott lost in the quarter finals to Robin Soderling.

The 22 year old Australian Open Finalist, who turns 23 on Saturday, enters today's match with a 13-3 record in Madrid. However, the majority of these wins were played when the tournament was held on indoor hard courts and not on the slower clay courts on which it's now played. Murray will be competing in his third quarter final (or better) of the season with a 13-6 match record (3-2 on clay)

The odds on the resurgent Murray are tempting. However, this match is being played on a surface that definitely favours David Ferrer. If we take into account the form of each player this season the Spaniard is understandably the favourite to win this match today.

The Valencia resident leads the ATP World Tour with a 32-9 record this season (most wins) and has the most clay court wins of any player on the tour (26-4). The home favourite, who reached his first World Tour Master series final in Rome two weeks ago (eventually losing to the clay king that is Rafael Nadal) comprehensively defeated Murray in the last 16 at the same event to go 2-1 ahead in terms of his head-to-head record against the Scot.

Prior to Rome the Spaniard has had semi-final efforts in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona, losing to Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco respectively. During the Latin American clay court swing he reached the final of Buenos Aires and won a title in Acapulco- both finals were played against Juan Carlos Ferrero.

I can't see anything other than a Ferrer win today, even though Murray has recovered some of the form that has brought him so much success in the past. Clay obviously isn't his favoured surface and he will be up against (in my opinion) the second best clay courter in the world. With this match being held in David Ferrer's home country, a plus point for the Spaniard, and the fact that only recently Ferrer defeated Murray in straight sets, another semi final showing is written in the stars for Ferrer.

Selection:

Back David Ferrer @ [1.68]
Back Ferrer -2.5 Games @ [2.1]

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