Events / Sean Calvert / 10 May 2010 /

Any clay court tournament in which Rafael Nadal features always makes it difficult to argue a case for anyone else. But everyone is vulnerable to some extent and if it's not Nadal's name on the trophy, here are two players who could come very close, says Sean Calvert.

Munich proved to be a very happy hunting ground last week, as both of my recommended wagers turned a handy profit.

First, Tomas Berdych failed miserably to justify favouritism, thereby rewarding those who took my advice to lay the Czech at [3.25] and then Mikhail Youzhny stormed to the title at odds of [7.5].

Elsewhere, it was another poor week for both Roger Federer, who lost to Albert Montanes in Estoril, and for Novak Djokovic, whose dodgy health let him down again in front of his own fans in Belgrade.

Djokovic has consequently pulled out of this week's event, which is the Mutua Madrileña Madrid Open - or just the plain old Madrid Masters to you and me.

It's a Masters 1000 event that moved last year to clay from hard and the inaugural winner on the red dirt was Federer, who will be looking for some form here ahead of the French Open.

The Swiss, who is [10.0] to retain his title, has his compatriot Stan Wawrinka in his immediate section of the draw, along with former red dirt maestro Carlos Moya, who has been given a wild card, as his world ranking is now 514.

Federer also has Andy Roddick in his quarter of the draw and a repeat of their 2009 last eight match could be on, but this is Roddick's first clay event of the year and it's not high on his agenda, so more likely quarter finalists in that section are Montanes and Ernests
Gulbis.

In the adjacent section, the seeds are Andy Murray and Marin Cilic - Murray at [55.0] having been bumped up to number three seed after Djokovic's withdrawal.

Murray will probably face Pablo Cuevas first up, which will be a tricky match given that clay is the Uruguayan's best surface and he's had a lot of matches on the red dirt recently.

He hasn't won that many of them though and Murray thrashed Cuevas in New York in their last meeting, so it's one that the Scot should win.

A bigger concern for Murray will be David Ferrer, who lies in wait for the Scot in the last eight, should they both get that far.

You would expect Ferrer to reach that stage, but Cilic performed well on the dirt in Munich last week and if he continues that sort of form, he's in with a shout in that section.

But it's the bottom half of then draw where the two form players have been drawn.

Fernando Verdasco and Rafa Nadal are set for a showdown in the semi finals here, with Verdasco giving it his all in front of his home town fans.

The Madrid man has a tough section though, with Jurgen Melzer, David Nalbandian, Tomas Berdych, Thomaz Bellucci, Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco and Robin Soderling all in that part of the draw.

If he gets through that lot Verdasco wouldn't fancy then facing Nadal, so if he reaches the final here it will be an amazing effort from Verdasco, who isn't great value at around [34.0].

Nadal on the other hand has little to worry him in the adjacent section, where only Philipp Kohlschreiber and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez have any real clay pedigree.

John Isner has done well on clay lately and he is in there too, along with Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but you would think that Nadal will be way too strong for that bunch.

Nadal, who is around [1.33], is chasing a record 18th Masters Series title here and if he does so he will be the first player to win three clay Masters Series titles consecutively, after his wins in Monte Carlo and Rome.

Another factor here is that if Nadal wins, he will most likely regain the world number two ranking from Djokovic and therefore enter Roland Garros as the number two seed - in the opposite half to Federer.

At least the weather won't be a factor in Madrid, as the sparkling new venue has retractable roofs on all three main courts, which should help quicken up the courts a bit by taking any dampness out of the air.

Nadal is not unbeatable in Madrid, as Federer showed last year by beating him in the final after Djokovic should have beaten him in the semi final, so as ever it's worth taking a chance on one of the bigger priced players against Nadal.

If Gulbis can carry on the way he has been doing then he's worth a speculative bet at around [57.0] and Ferrer is also worth a punt at [27.0].

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