Events / Sean Calvert / 13 October 2008 /

Sean Calvert talks us through the betting for the Madrid Masters, played during what he calls the "silly season". Rafael Nadal has a good draw and is the man to beat on home soil but our very own Andy Murray could well be the value play.

Silly season is well underway now in the ATP calendar, as highlighted by two unseeded first time winners last week, which consequently led to a poor seven days of betting for me.

I correctly identified the fact that a Russian would claim the Kremlin Cup (what were the chances of that?!), but who would seriously have thought that the Russian in question would be Igor Kunitsyn?

About as many as would have tipped Philipp Peztschner to win in Austria I would imagine and the less said about Igor Andreev's efforts in Moscow the better after the number two seed collapsed from the brink of a straight sets victory against the might of Jeremy Chardy.

At least some things never change in tennis and one thing you can always rely on is that David Nalbandian will awaken from his early season slumber to claim a title or two in the autumn and he proved this by taking the crown in Stockholm last week.

The tour now moves on to Madrid for the ATP Masters event and Nalbandian ([14.0]) is hoping to repeat his success here last year, but history - albeit only recent history - is against him, as no one has ever retained the Madrid title or won it more than once.

The reigning champ also has an awful draw in the most competitive quarter and after his Swedish efforts, he is overlooked this time.

Also in that tough quarter are recent tournament winners Juan Martin Del-Potro ([34.0]), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([110]) and Tomas Berdych ([85.0]), along with US Open champ Roger Federer ([3.25]), making that section extremely tough to call.

Andy Murray ([12.0]) on the other hand can't grumble too much about his draw position. The Scot has been paired with fellow seeds Fernando Gonzalez ([300]), Fernando Verdasco ([300]) and Andy Roddick ([50.0]), but the greater danger could well come from the unseeded Gael Monfils [150] and Marin Cilic [330].

The two young guns are beginning to show signs of making a move towards becoming regular tournament contenders and I was very impressed with the level of Cilic in particular during his last event in New York.

The big Croatian should have beaten Novak Djokovic ([8.0]) in a pulsating night match on Ashe and if he finds that sort of form again, he is worth considering to go far at a huge price, but Murray looks to have a fine opportunity of progressing from that section.

The most likely champion however is surely world number one Rafa Nadal ([3.5]), who must have had a wry smile across his countenance when presented with the draw.

The home favourite has the out of form duo David Ferrer ([160.0]) and Stanislas Wawrinka ([300.0]) is his section, along with Richard Gasquet ([200.0]) (5-0 Nadal head-to-head) and his main danger could possibly come in the unlikely form of Mardy Fish ([500.0]).

Fish attracted headlines here last year for his very public spat with Paul Henri Mathieu and he will be hoping to make the headlines for the right reasons by taking out Nadal this time after his fine run to the quarters in New York.

Fish is not known for producing his best very often however and providing he is fit and ready to go, Nadal looks a sure thing to reach the semi finals and quite likely the final as the adjacent section to the Spaniard looks relatively weak too.

The only exception to that would normally be Novak Djokovic but the Serb regularly weakens at the end of the year and holds little appeal at the current odds.

The remainder of that section is a bit of a lottery with the likes of James Blake ([260.0]), Ivo Karlovic ([300.0]) and Nikolay Davydenko ([75.0]) among the protagonists.

Blake has never won a match in four attempts in this tournament and his recent form suggests that may continue, as he will face the winner of Igor Andreev [500] and Gilles Simon [210] and the others are readily overlooked.

Having dissected the draw then, the best play would appear to be to get on Nadal early and trust that he is in good enough shape to last the distance. He will be desperate to land the title in Spain and cement his place as world number one at the year end.

Murray also looks good to go far given his draw and looks a sound bet at around [12.0] with a view to laying in perhaps the semis and Tsonga at [110] is surely the best value to emerge from the bottom section.

This is silly season though, so don't be surprised if we continue to see some eyebrow raising results in Madrid this week.

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