Events / Ben Caudell / 14 May 2009 /

Fresh from predicting Juan Monaco's odds-against win over David Ferrer yesterday, Ben Caudell looks ahead to day four at the Madrid Masters where a rejuvenated Ivan Ljubicic is in action.

Argentine wild card Juan Monaco was successful in upsetting the 12th seed David Ferrer 6-4, 6-4 as predicted in yesterday's daily tips.

Monaco, who had already defeated Feliciano Lopez, won in straight sets and we managed to back him @ [2.6] to win the match and lay Ferrer 2-0 @ [2.5]8 pre-match.

Nadal improved his phenomenal clay-court record of 31 matches unbeaten on the dirt after a convincing straight sets win over Jurgen Melzer by 6-3, 6-1. The 22-year-old managed to break the Austrian twice in the seventh and ninth games courtesy of three Melzer double faults in the latter to close out the first set 6-3. Two more service breaks in the second secured Nadal's 39th victory of the season after just 61 minutes. Nadal will now play Philipp Kohlschreiber in the next round; he leads the head-to-head series against the German 4-0.

Today's Selections:

Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) v Gilles Simon (FRA) - Ivan Ljubicic has silenced a few doubters recently; he has been in exceptional form of late reaching the quarter finals at Indian Wells and the final of the Monte Carlo Master series on clay, losing to eventual winner Rafael Nadal. This wasn't the case early on in the season, the Croatian looked to be in free fall out of the top 100 at one stage having lost eight of his first ten matches.

The clay courts seem to suit Ljubicic's game, the slower surface allows the Croatian more time for his large take back on both the forehand and backhand side and this is the reason behind Ljubicic's grass court results having been poor in comparison. With wins over Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, Simone Bolelli, Juan Martin Del Potro and Arnaud Clement all in the space of a month there is good reason to believe that another scalp is on the cards.

These two have met on two previous occasions, Ljubicic leads the series 2-0 including a straight sets victory back in 2006 on clay. All the stats are in favour of the Croatian: better service points won, matches won, service games held and return statistics over the last six months on clay. With this in mind and the fact that Gilles Simon's form is wavering a little, backing the twenty nine year old is a good bet.

Selection: Back Ivan Ljubicic @ [2.0] to win the match

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