Events / Sean Calvert / 27 July 2009 /

As the ATP Tour moves to the American hard-courts, Sean Calvert tries to separate the wheat from the chaff as he tries to bounce back from last week's disappointment.

I was due a poor week after an excellent run and I certainly had it at the German Open in Hamburg where both of my bets bowed out in the first round. To be fair though, one was due to injury.

Stan Wawrinka's limp effort against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was very disappointing, but the European clay court swing is pretty much over now with most of the top stars heading over to the US for the hard court season.

This week's event on the American circuit is a personal favourite of mine - Los Angeles - where I tipped up Radek Stepanek for the title at [50.0] in 2007 and this proud old tournament is now in its 31st renewal, having been won in its inaugural year of 1968 by none other than Rod Laver.

Sadly there are no such legends as the Rockhampton Rocket plying their trade at the UCLA tennis centre this week, but nevertheless the draw has presented us with a bit of value by the looks of things.

Last year's semi-finalist and number two seed Mardy Fish ([6.0]) has been handed a superb opportunity to go one better, having been paired with world number 36 Igor Kunitsyn ([42]) and fellow Russian Dmitry Tursunov ([10.5]) in his section.

Despite reaching the final here in 2006, Tursunov has been beaten in the second round on each of his other appearances in LA and he hasnt looked right since being injured at Eastbourne.
His defeat to Frank Dancevic ([21.0]) in Indianapolis last week highlighted his current lack of sharpness and in any event, Fish holds a 4-1 overall head-to-head advantage over Tursunov all on hard courts.

The only other seed in that bottom part of the draw is Benjamin Becker ([32.0]), who also lost to Dancevic last week and whose best surface is grass. Indeed, grass is the only surface where Becker holds a positive career record (14-12) and his only appearance in LA ended in a straight sets loss to world number 390 Scott Oudesma.

One player who could spring a surprise in the bottom half of the draw is Leonardo Mayer at a price of around [70.0].

The 22-year-old Argentine has been making steady progress this year, highlighted by a win over James Blake at Roland Garros, where he also took Tommy Haas to five sets.
Although his best results have come on clay, Mayer has won a challenger event on hard and he performed well on grass this year at Eastbourne, where he was another Dancevic victim, and also at Wimbledon. All of which means he can also play on the faster surfaces.

Given the question marks over the seeds in the bottom half of the draw it might pay to have an interest in the world number 60 on a back-to-lay basis.

Other unseeded players in the bottom half with half a chance include Dancevic and John Isner ([21]), while Marcos Baghdatis ([34.0]) is there too, but still struggling at the moment.

The top half of the draw looks much more competitive, with any one of Haas, Ernests Gulbis ([42.0]), Robby Ginepri ([26.0]), Dudi Sela ([17.0]), Marat Safin ([44.0]) and Sam Querrey ([10.5]) in with a shout on their best form.

Haas is the number one seed here and the current tournament favourite at around [3.0], having been LA champion twice on his way to a 13-4 event record.
The German has certainly enjoyed something of a renaissance in his career of late, but I wouldnt be keen on parting with too much of my hard earned cash on him at [3.0], as the competition is tough.

The 31-year-old has last week's Indianapolis winner Ginepri, along with unpredictable pair Gulbis and Safin in his quarter before a potential meet with Sela or Querrey to reach the final.

Ginepri's title success wasnt that much of a shock last week, as he is one of those players who can burst into form (and out of it) very quickly. He is a streaky player and I wouldnt be surprised if he caused some more damage in LA, but its doubtful if hell be putting too much effort in after his Indy exertions.

Querrey is always there or thereabouts at the head of the betting for events like this, but difficult to make money out of backing, as his solitary title to date (in Vegas in 2008 against Kevin Anderson) shows.

After losing to Ginepri in Indy, Querrey now has a 1-3 finals record and to lose to Rajeev Ram and Ginepri in tournament matches is poor form for a player with pretensions of the top 20.

Davis Cup hero Sela has found it difficult to transfer his form for Israel to the ATP Tour and a solitary appearance in a tour level final is not a great return for a player of his talent.

Sela remains devastating on his day, but by and large frustrating for punters, as his straight sets Indy loss to world number 159 Alex Bergomolov Jr last week testified.
His price of around [17.0] is based mainly on potential and I wont be taking any of that this week.

My two against the field in LA then are Mardy Fish and Leonardo Mayer to make up for last week's disappointment.

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