Events / Sean Calvert / 06 October 2008 /

Sean Calvert expects a home favourite to win in Moscow this week in the Kremlin Cup but his money will be on Igor Andreev rather than top seed Nikolay Davydenko. Here's why.

It was another profitable week at the Tokyo Open and this week the tour rolls on to Moscow where home success is virtually guaranteed.

Juan Martin Del Potro despite losing in the final in Tokyo, made us some money on the back to lay basis advised, coming in from [4.5] to below [2.0] as did Kei Nishikori [42.0] to [16.0] and I'll be investing that profit in success for one of the Russians in Moscow.

The Kremlin Cup has been won by a home player in nine out of the last eleven renewals, with this year's top seed and favourite Nikolay Davydenko [3.5] having claimed the title here on the last two occasions.

Undoubtedly Davydenko will be a threat again this year, as he is showing signs of a return to form of late - notably when beating David Nalbandian on clay in Argentina recently in the Davis Cup - a feat which not too many players achieve in their careers.

Davydenko overall though is not playing to his consistent best this season and I prefer the claims of another former champ and fellow Russian, Igor Andreev at the nicer price of [7.5].
The 25-year-old is at a career high in the ATP rankings and showed some of his very best form in the US Open when thrashing Fernando Verdasco and giving Roger Federer his toughest match of the tournament when he took Fed the distance in the last 16.

Andreev had his chances to win that day in New York and anything like that level should be enough to see him take advantage of a very nice looking draw, where he is seeded number two and away from any early tests - at least on paper anyway.

He has Yen-Hsun Lu [80] in the first round, followed by a match with the winner of Jeremy Chardy [126] and Potito Starace [126] before a probable clash with last week's Metz champion, Dmitry Tursunov ([7.0]).

Andreev has a 5-1 head-to-head record over Tursunov and is taken to confirm that form as the fresher of the two and proceed to a likely semi final with Metz finalist Paul-Henri Mathieu [11.0].
The occasionally brilliant Frenchman is another who has a fine record in this event, having won the title here in 2002 and reaching the final last year. Mathieu is a confidence player and when he feels he's playing well he is tough to beat and can come up with a very high standard of tennis almost effortlessly.

It's not easy to win with Mathieu though and it's hard to see him reaching back-to-back finals, but he remains the biggest danger to Andreev in the bottom half of the draw.

In the top half, Davydenko - one of nine Russians in the draw - must overcome a tricky opener against Florent Serra ([80]) (1-1 head-to-head) and he has compatriots Marat Safin ([13.0]) and Mikhail Youzhny ([11.0]) in his section, so a better value bet may be Janko Tipsarevic ([21.0]), who has the best-looking chance in the top section.

The Dostoevsky-loving Serbian is very frustrating to follow thanks to a less than impressive injury record and a tendency towards poor concentration in matches he should win, so just a small saver is the advice with a view to laying later on.

Tipsarevic, despite his obvious ability, is yet to reach an ATP final, but if he is fully fit he stands a fine chance after being handed a first round tie with qualifier Alexandre Kudryavstev [201] before likely clashes with compatriot Victor Troicki [29] and Youzhny standing in the way of a semi final spot.

Overall then an outright win bet on Andreev with a view to laying if he makes the final (Andreev has a poor record in finals so far) and a small saver on Tipsarevic with a view to laying later is the advice for the Kremlin Cup and here's hoping for another profitable week.

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