Kremlin Cup Betting: Tipsy may have the bottle for maiden win

Events / Sean Calvert / 18 October 2010 / 1

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Janko Tipsarevic has never won an ATP tournament

"Serbia’s Davis Cup hero lost to Youzhny in the final here last year
and it’s about time that he converted his talent into a tournament
win."

Never an easy tournament to call in Moscow but Sean Calvert has picked out a couple of bets that can land us in profit again...

The rain delays in China last week meant that my tip Novak Djokovic didn't have enough left in the tank in Shanghai against Roger Federer unfortunately.

The players voted Shanghai as tournament of the year last year and I'm sure it's great for them, but the lack of crowds in attendance were a disgrace to the sport all week and the ATP need to do something about it for 2011.

They won't of course and with the Asian swing now over the tour comes back to Europe with events in Sweden and Russia and it's the latter that I'm concentrating on this week.

The Kremlin Cup in Moscow is never the easiest of events to predict, but one thing's for sure and that's that a Russian player will almost certainly be in the shake-up come finals day.

The indoor hard court event has been won by home players for the last six years in a row and in 14 of the 20 occasions that the event has been staged, with Mikhail Youzhny defending it this week.

Surprisingly as far as I'm concerned Youzhny isn't favourite this week and instead the hopelessly out of form Nikolay Davydenko has been put in at [4.0] to win his fourth Kremlin Cup.

Yes, Davy has done well over the years and has a 17-4 record here but his form is so bad right now that I'd be surprised to see him make the last eight this year.

The Russian has been back on tour for 18 weeks now since returning from an admittedly bad wrist injury so he surely can't still be using that as an excuse for some woeful results, including last week's first round loss to the mighty Mischa Zverev in straight sets.

The last time that Davy went further than the last eight in any tournament was in Rotterdam back in February and his only final this year was in the very first event of 2010 in Doha.

That sort of form is but a distant memory though and despite being given a straightforward looking quarter of the draw nothing is simple for Davy when things aren't going his way and on current form we could be on for a repeat of the embarrassment of the St Petersburg Open of 2007.

He was memorably fined for not trying that day against Marin Cilic and don't rule out something similar if things go on as they are.

He can't qualify to defend his ATP Finals title now and could conceivably be out of the top 20 by the year end as he has plenty of points to defend from last autumn/winter which won't be defended.

The players I like to take advantage are Janko Tipsarevic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, with Tipsy a decent back to lay bet at around [20.0].

Serbia's Davis Cup hero lost to Youzhny in the final here last year and it's about time that he converted his talent into a tournament win.

The 26-year-old is the highest ranked player in the world (at number 37) without a tournament win to his name, but it's tough to back him with any real confidence, although he's one to keep an eye on this week in that top half of the draw.

Tsonga played quite well in Shanghai and is gradually getting back to form after a long lay off and he should be a threat to the likes of Tipsarevic, Radek Stepanek, Viktor Troicki, Jeremy Chardy and Dmitry Tursunov, who all take on Davydenko in that top half of the draw.

In the bottom half, Youzhny looks strong at [5.5] and this year has been great for him with two titles so far. To be at world number eight and in with a good chance of qualifying for the World Tour Finals after slipping to number 70 last year is a major achievement.

He didn't have the best time in China, but he did reach the final in Malaysia and he looks the most likely of a posse of former Soviet Union players in the bottom half of the draw to make the final.

It's not easy to call though with the likes of Denis Istomin, Igor Andreev, Ilya Marchenko, Andrey Golubev, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Sergiy Stakhovsky all with claims as well as Marcos Baghdatis, who makes his tournament debut.

So, in a tough event to predict, the best action in the Kremlin Cup would be to lay Davydenko and back Youzhny, with a small saver on Tipsarevic if you're in the mood for a longshot.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

Simon | 24 October 2010

Sean, what did you make of Tipsarevic's defeat against Zeballos? Something strange seemed to happen, particularly if you were watching the in-play odds!