Events / Sean Calvert / 16 October 2011 /

Fresh from tipping up Andy Murray to win in Shanghai last week, Sean Calvert talks us through the best bets in this week's Kremlin Cup.

Andy Murray did the business for us in Shanghai on Sunday by beating David Ferrer to win his third title in a row and at the same time the Scot overtook Roger Federer as the number three player in the world.

So, the Asian swing is over and the top players have a bit of a break this week, with two non-mandatory ATP 250 events on offer in Russia and Sweden.

The likes of Juan Martin Del Potro, Gael Monfils and Stan Wawrinka are playing in Stockholm, but the Kremlin Cup in Moscow offers a better opportunity to invest our Murray winnings.

This indoor hard-court event represents a more than decent chance for number one seed, Janko Tipsarevic, to net another title in his unlikely quest to reach the ATP World Tour Finals, but I won't be backing the Serb this week.

The [5.0] shot has looked below par physically since winning in Malaysia a few weeks ago and he looks to have the toughest section of the draw to negotiate, with the likes of Dmitry Tursunov, Nikolay Davydenko, Julien Benneteau, Igor Andreev and Andreas Seppi all potential finalists in that half.

Indeed, there are seven Russians in the top half of the draw, with qualifying still to be completed at the time of writing, and traditionally they have always done well here, with 11 of the last 15 Kremlin Cup winners hailing from Russia.

Davydenko, in particular, tends to do well in Moscow, as his tournament record of 17-5 suggests, but he's been struggling with a hip injury lately. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he was saving himself for this tournament.

The same applies to Tursunov, who withdrew from his match against Murray last week in Shanghai citing a thigh strain, and a strong showing from the Moscow resident would also not be a huge shock at a price of around [17.0].

Benneteau could be a decent outside bet at around [17.0], after compiling a confidence building run of 21-4 on hard-courts since the start of the North American hard-court swing.

The Frenchman has reached the final in three out of his last four tournaments - the US Open being the one exception - and he's fresh from winning the Challenger in Rennes on Sunday.

Benny is in Tipsarevic's quarter of the draw and at three times the price of the Serb, he looks a decent long shot if the arduous journey to Russia doesn't affect him too much.

The bottom half of the draw has presented Alexandr Dolgopolov a fine chance to claim his first title on hard-courts.

The Ukrainian number three seed's opposition includes Alex Bogomolov Jr, Gilles Muller, Viktor Troicki, and Philipp Kohlschreiber, with defending champion Troicki looking the main barrier to the final for The Dog.

Troicki will be looking for a performance this week with points to defend, but the Serbian hasn't won more than two matches in any tournament since the French Open, where coincidentally, he defeated Dolgopolov.

The number two seed's form is so poor at the moment that he has lost seven of his last nine matches and can't be backed with any confidence this week at around [9.0].

Dolgopolov hasn't exactly been in sparkling form lately either, but he reached the quarter finals in Shanghai last week and his draw looks perfect for him to make a strong showing in Moscow.

Muller has posted some good results in the second half of the year and if he serves well this week then he could go far, but the bet has to Dolgopolov at around [5.5].

Recommended Bet

Back Dolgopolov at [5.5]

Long shot

Benneteau at around [17]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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