Indian Wells Wednesday Betting: Little man to beat big man

Events / Sean Calvert / 16 March 2011 /

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Tommy Robredo is far more consistent than Sam Querrey

"This is the classic battle of power versus guile and if Big Sam has a day where he finds the lines then he’ll win. But he doesn’t have too many of those days often enough and Robredo will pounce if Querrey’s radar is a little off."

It's a classic match-up between a huge server and a wily, resilient base-liner and on this occasion it's worth siding with the latter, says Sean Calvert.

It was a poor betting day yesterday, as Jurgen Melzer opted to throw in a shocker of a performance against Richard Gasquet - the worst I've seen for a long time from a supposed top-10 player.

Day seven at the BNP Paribas Open sees many of the fourth round matches take place and as ever I'm on the hunt for the best value bet of the day.

With Rafa Nadal being around [1.02] and Juan Martin Del Potro being [1.25] to progress, the match that catches my eye is the clash between Sam Querrey and Tommy Robredo.

Regular readers of this column will know that I've done quite well opposing Querrey over the years and I can see the big man struggling again at [1.55] against the consistent Spaniard.

The pair have met just the once, with Tommy coming out on top on
hard-courts in the Australian Open in 2007.

This is the classic battle of power versus guile and if Big Sam has a day where he finds the lines then he'll win. But he doesn't have too many of those days often enough and Robredo will pounce if Querrey's radar is a little off.

The American has only once reached the last 32 at Indian Wells and never gone further. In all of his 27 Masters Series appearances, he has just two quarter finals - and one of those was on clay, so his record in these big events is poor.

His first two results here have been good wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Fernando Verdasco, but it's a bit soon to forget how wretched his 2011 has been prior to this week.

The only players Querrey had beaten this year were Dustin Brown, Brian Dabul and Denis Istomin, while his opponent today has done well to move back up the rankings by performing well on the Golden Swing and reaching the fourth round in Melbourne.

This will certainly be an interesting clash of styles and it comes down to whether you trust Querrey to continue hitting the winners. Personally, I don't, so I'll be backing Tommy Robredo today.

Recommended bet:

Robredo to beat Querrey at [2.8]

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