Events / Sean Calvert / 18 March 2012 /

It's finals day in Indian Wells and the greatest player of his generation will go off as a heavy favourite to win another title - and Sean Calvert can't find a reason to oppose him...

It was a frustrating day at all round at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Saturday, as the weather put paid to both the schedule and my chances of profiting from the tournament outright.

The wind and rain that arrived in the Californian desert made the semi-final between Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal a bit of a farce and it was the Swiss that handled the conditions by far the better of the two players.

Before that, there was a big shock as John Isner took out defending champion and world number one Novak Djokovic in an entertaining three set scrap that went all the way to a final set breaker.

At least my suggested bet in that match of over 20.5 games was successful, but it doesn't get any easier for Isner who faces a Federer seeking a bit of revenge for his Davis Cup loss in the final today.

First up it's the women's final, which is a repeat of the Australian Open final of a couple of months ago between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.

Sharapova took a bit of a beating in Melbourne, resulting in a second set bagel, while Azarenka has gone from strength to strength and hasn't lost a match all year.

The Belarusian's form is such that she's a skinny-looking [1.33] for the win and around [1.75] for a straight sets win, which she has achieved in the previous three completed matches concerning the pair - all on hard-courts.

I fancy another quick match between these two and the total games mark of under 20.5 looks worth backing at around [1.9].

Federer starts the men's final as the clear favourite at around [1.25] to claim his first Indian Wells title since back in 2006 and he's 72-30 in finals throughout his career and on a winning streak of five consecutive final wins.

The last time Federer lost in a final was Roland Garros last year and he'll be confident of claiming his 73rd title today, but Isner must be on a real high right now and he has a puncher's chance at odds of around [4.8].

The big man is more than just a serve and a thudding forehand these days and his returning in particular has improved immensely.

He now sits inside the top-10 in the world and has to be respected today, having beaten Federer and Djokovic in their last meetings and taken Nadal to five sets on clay.

The big odds about an Isner win are a tempting proposition, but the concern is his questionable record the day after longish matches, as his powers of recovery haven't always been great and he'll have to serve off the charts for two days running.

Adrenaline should see him through his first Masters 1000 final and it would be great for American tennis if Isner could pull off the shock, but Federer is yet to drop a set in an Indian Wells final and he's only dropped one set in his last five finals - and that was in a breaker.

The 'tie break played' market looks good for backing yes at around [1.78] but I think Federer will come through this one in a close straight sets at around [1.7].

Recommended Bets
Back Federer 2-0 at around [1.7]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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