Events / Sean Calvert / 16 March 2012 /

Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer...

I finally managed to get some restitution from Gilles Simon on Thursday at the BNP Paribas Open, as my recommended bet of over 23.5 games was successful.

Friday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden looks the best day yet to have tickets, as today's line-up features two stellar men's quarter-finals and an intriguing contest in the women's semis.

First up is the fourth meeting this year between Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro with Delpo looking to beat Fed for the first time since the World Tour Finals in 2009.

The Swiss has certainly had the Argentine's number lately, but Fed hasn't been at his best this week amidst a bout of flu and today represents a decent chance for Del Potro to strike.

As I said in my tournament preview, Federer doesn't particularly enjoy the slow conditions here in the Californian desert and has dropped sets to both Milos Raonic and Thomaz Bellucci this week.

Delpo will need to improve upon his serving statistics from his last match - the struggle against Denis Istomin - in which he recorded 54% of first deliveries in if he's going to win today, but he should be able to take a set at least.

The big man should have taken at least a set in the pair's last meeting in Dubai, but Delpo's poor tie break record came back to haunt him again and he lost in two breakers. Hopefully, the fact that he's won two of the three tie breaks he's played here this week will help in that regard.

The choices of bet in this one for me are either back to lay Delpo at around [3.4] and trade in-play, or if you can't watch the match the wager would be to lay the [2.14] about a Federer 2-0 victory.

The other men's quarter-final features my outright tip, Rafa Nadal, who takes on David Nalbandian.

The Argentine has had a fine week so far, with wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and although he hasn't beaten Rafa since 2007, his game has given Nadal a fair bit of trouble over the years.

Nalbandian's sweet hitting is a joy to watch when he's at his best, but those days are few and far between now and he's available to back at around [8.8] for the win tonight.

Nalby has tended to start his matches well and then fade against the relentless hitting of Nadal and the [4.6] about him winning the first set could prove to be a bit of value here - most likely on a back-to-lay basis.

For the sake of my outright bet though, I'm hoping for a Rafa win and I think he should come through this one in conditions he's enjoying this week, having reached the doubles final here once again.

The women's semi final between Maria Sharapova and a seemingly back to form Ana Ivanovic looks like it'll be worth watching if you like a bit of late night tennis.

They haven't met since the Australian Open Final of 2008 and I must admit that I didn't expect Ana to continue at the high level she's shown this week when she took on Marion Bartoli yesterday.

Despite Bartoli's apparent illness, Ana again played some excellent tennis and she has a real shot at around [2.5] today if she can keep that level up.

Recommended Bet
Lay Federer 2-0 against Del Potro at [2.14]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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