Indian Wells Day One Tips: The end of A-Rod?

Events / Sean Calvert / 10 March 2012 /

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Is Roddick set to crash out in round one?

"A-Rod is in serious decline and doesn’t appeal at all at around [1.38] to defeat Kubot."

Television coverage of the BNP Paribas Open Masters 1000 event from Indian Wells begins in the UK on Saturday on Sky Sports. Sean Calvert has been searching for the best bets.

Saturday sees the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, and Andy Roddick in action in the men's draw and, while Murray looks an absolute certainty to beat out of form Guillermo-Garcia Lopez, I wouldn't risk a penny on Roddick in his opening match.

A-Rod, who may very well be making his last appearance at Indian Wells is in serious decline right now and doesn't appeal at all at around [1.38] to defeat net-rushing Pole, Lukasz Kubot.

Roddick has been hampered by injury thus far in 2012 but is clearly pretty close to the end of his career - as a top-20 force at the very least.

The 29-year-old is now ranked outside the top-30 in the world and hasn't beaten anyone of note in a competitive match since beating Nicolas Almagro in Shanghai last year.

He will have been buoyed by a win at Madison Square Garden in a knockabout against Roger Federer, but that hardly counts as a match and he could be vulnerable again here against Kubot, who won the pair's only career meeting to date back in 2009 in Shanghai.

Roddick was [1.04] that day and he's a shaky favourite again here against a player who defeated another big server in Ivo Karlovic in comfortable straight sets in Round One a couple of days ago.

Roddick has lost four of his last five matches against players over 6'2" in height and five of his last eight Round of 64 matches, so if you fancy taking a chance today, this is surely the match in which to do it.

Others matches in which to consider the outsiders today include Andreas Seppi at [4.4] to beat the out of form Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey has a shot at [2.3] against Nico Almagro.

As for Murray, the Scot is priced up at around [1.04] to beat Garcia Lopez, who he has defeated in their two meetings so far with ease. Murray should win comfortably, although he was memorably beaten here last year in his opening match by Donald Young at a similar price.

The only other match that I will probably get involved in today also takes place in the early hours and that is young American hope Ryan Harrison to beat ailing Serb, Viktor Troicki.

Harrison is on the up at the moment and his aggressive game and attitude might be too much for Troicki, whose confidence must be low after a really poor run of form.

The 19-year-old beat Troicki in straight sets in their last meeting in Shanghai late last year and the Serb has just one win over a top-50 opponent in 2012 (Ferrero in Melbourne) and lost to Steve Darcis first up at Delray Beach last week.

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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