Events / Sean Calvert / 07 March 2012 /

This is a tournament where handling the heat of the Californian desert is as important as serving and returning well. The rested Rafael Nadal returns for this one and with a good draw, is the man to side with, says Sean Calvert.

The first ATP Masters 1000 of 2012 is upon us, with the world's top stars headed for the California desert for the BNP Paribas Open, more commonly known simply as Indian Wells.

After a winner and two runner-up tips in a row in recent weeks it's time to cast my gaze over the men's singles draw and see what it has thrown up for us this year.

The first thing to catch the eye is the rather straightforward looking draw that [5.0] shot Rafa Nadal has been handed, in comparison to some of his rivals.

The Spaniard, who took a scheduled break from competition after that classic Australian Open final loss to Novak Djokovic has been given the perfect opportunity to get some match practice in the early rounds against some of a group consisting of Leonardo Mayer, Alejandro Falla, Tommy Haas, Jarkko Nieminen and Marcel Granollers.

The conditions at Indian Wells tend to be on the slow side with spells of blustery wind, which won't be a hindrance to Rafa's game and later opposition in his quarter includes the likes of Feliciano Lopez, Marcos Baghdatis, Donald Young and Alexandr Dolgopolov.

I can't imagine even a slightly rusty Rafa losing to any of that lot and the last time he failed to reach at least the semi finals here was way back in 2004, when he lost to Agustin Calleri (remember him?).

Perhaps his only real test will be in the quarters when he's likely to meet either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Janko Tipsarevic and given that Tsonga has an awful record in this tournament and pretty average recent form, expect to see Rafa in the last four again.

The world number two is scheduled to meet the in-form Roger Federer in the semi finals in what would be the pair's first ever meeting at Indian Wells.

Fed's recent good form has seen him priced up at around the [5.0] mark to win this event for the fourth time, but I don't like his chances in these conditions with a tricky draw and nemesis Nadal to face if he does make the semis.

The Swiss maestro hasn't reached the final on this stodgy surface since completing a hat-trick of wins in 2006 and this year he has Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Nikolay Davydenko, Jurgen Melzer and Fernando Verdasco in his quarter.

Most (if not all) of those wouldn't be a problem indoors, but losses to Baghdatis and Mardy Fish here in recent years suggest he can be vulnerable at Indian Wells to lower ranked players.

Delpo is interesting, but a touch short at around [18.0], while Ferrer on current form would be worth consideration at a big [100.0] were it not for his awful record at Indian Wells (one quarter final in nine starts).

I doubt Raonic will enjoy these conditions either, although he did beat Fish here last year. His likely third round clash with Federer will be one to watch though.

The top half of the draw sees Djokovic contend with a quarter containing the in-form Kevin Anderson, plus Richard Gasquet, Florian Mayer, and Philipp Kohlschreiber initially.

Then the world number one will face one of a group containing Nicolas Almagro, Kei Nishikori, Sam Querrey, Andy Roddick, and Tomas Berdych, with the latter looking the obvious threat.

The Czech world number seven has played some excellent tennis lately, but, as ever, he can't be relied upon to string it all together when it counts and his record of never having bettered the last eight here looks set to continue.

I can't imagine the wind here does much to help his high ball toss and questionable temperament either.

Nishikori is interesting at a career high of number 17, but opening round losses the last two years at Indian Wells does little to inspire confidence in the Japanese star.

As for Djokovic, the defending champion hasn't looked quite the same force as last year so far in 2012, despite winning in Melbourne, but his loss to Murray in Dubai could be avenged in the semi finals here.

Murray has an eminently winnable quarter with Fish and John Isner the only obvious threats and despite his below average record here (two semis or better in six tries) he should come through to meet the world number one again.

Indian Wells has produced the odd shock winner, with Ivan Ljubicic's [600.0] success in 2010 the most memorable, but Ljubicic aside it's rarely been won by an outsider and it's hard to make a case for any of the bigger priced players again.

Fish and Isner might be worth a look in Murray's section at around [80.0] each, but Fish has been poor lately and I can't see the desert conditions suiting Isner - but you wouldn't think they'd have suited Ljubicic either.

Del Potro has a chance if Federer falls early, but the best bet has to be to back a rested Nadal, who has a great record here and a draw that should allow him to play himself into form in conditions that suit.

Recommended Bet

Back Nadal at [5.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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