Events / Sean Calvert / 09 March 2011 /

Novak Djokovic has started 2011 in fantastic style and there's nothing to suggest Indian Wells will be any different, despite the presence of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the field, says Sean Calvert.

After a few weeks off, the ATP Tour is back in full swing this week with the first Masters 1000 event of the year, the BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California.

Defending champion here is Ivan Ljubicic, who sprung a [600.0] shock last year, but who with 1000 ranking points to defend, will slip out of the world's top-40 with an opening round defeat this week.

The favourite - and rightly so based on recent form - is Novak Djokovic, who has been in irresistible touch in 2011, with 12 wins and no losses so far.

The sub-plot at Indian Wells is that Nole can overtake Roger Federer as world number two in the following scenarios:

If Djokovic wins the title or reaches the final and Federer doesn't.

Or if Djokovic reaches the last four and Federer fails to make the last eight.

You've got to feel that the Serbian will get that number two ranking sooner rather than later, particularly with his recent dominance over the Swiss and the fact that Federer hasn't done well here since the last of his three straight titles in 2006.

The pair have been drawn in the same half and Nole looks to have the more straightforward route to the semis, as he's been drawn with big servers, Andy Roddick, John Isner and Michael Llodra, plus the likes of Richard Gasquet, Viktor Troicki, Jurgen Melzer and Ernests Gulbis.

I don't see any of those beating Djokovic at the moment and it would be a big shock if he didn't make it through that section to the last four.

The interesting one in that part of the draw is wild card Bernard Tomic, who might cause a few problems if he can transfer his Melbourne form to California.

Federer has had problems with lower ranked players here lately, with losses to the likes of Mardy Fish and Marcos Baghdatis blotting his Indian Wells copybook.

Kei Nishikori will be Fed's opener and Fish is in his section again, but this event for me is all about how Milos Raonic does and it would be fascinating to see him play Federer. The Canadian has Fish first up, which the American won't be looking forward to after losing to him in Memphis.

The surface here will be slower than the one in Memphis, but I still fancy Raonic to do well here with his confidence sky high.

Others of note in Federer's quarter are Stan Wawrinka, Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic, so it's far from certain that Fed will make the last four.

In the top half, Nadal always does well here and hasn't failed to reach the last four since way back in 2004 and if he's fit, he should get through a quarter that doesn't look overly threatening.

Rafa enjoyed a couple of bloodless wins in Davis Cup last week, which told us little about his form or fitness and the opposition this week will be tougher. It includes Marcos Baghdatis, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Nicolas Almagro, who are all in with half a shout of beating him.

Andy Murray is in the adjacent quarter and the number five seed has once again been drawn with Robin Soderling, plus Fernando Verdasco, Ljubicic and Juan Martin Del Potro.

That's not going to be easy for the Scot, who doesn't have an outstanding record here and he is readily overlooked in favour of the man that beat him here last year, Soderling.

The Swede has an 18-1 record in 2011 with three titles already and he should have reached the final here last year - falling to Roddick in the semis. Roddick needs wins in the next fortnight as well, with big points from here and Miami to defend.

It's great to see Del Potro edging back to his best and he will be another dark horse here along with Raonic. But is he ready to win a Masters Series event yet?

Del Potro has lost both times he's faced top-10 opposition this year and he hasn't enjoyed conditions here in the past, so the last eight would be a good result for the Argentine.

As for the outsiders, Raonic is a bit skinny at around [50.0], but whoever wins out of the Canadian and Fish has a shot - Fish has done well here before and has a puncher's chance at over [100.0], as does Stan Wawrinka at a similarly large price. But I don't think you can look much further than Djokovic for the title at around [4.5] in the
form he's in right now.

Recommended bet:

Back Djokovic at [4.5]
Next best: Soderling at [17.0]

Long shots:

Fish at [150.0]
Wawrinka at [100.0]
Raonic at [50.0]
Berdych at [55.0]

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