Events / Sean Calvert / 13 March 2010 /

Sean Calvert dismisses the chances of world number one Roger Federer and defending champ Rafael Nadal, instead preferring to side with Andy Murray who has plenty to prove after a disappointing early exit in Dubai last month. Plus his pick from the outsiders....

The first Masters Series event of 2010 is upon us and as ever, we head to the California desert and the outdoor hard courts of Indian Wells for the BNP Paribas Open.

Worth a cool $605,500 to the winner and just as importantly, 1000 ranking points are on offer for the man who succeeds Rafa Nadal as champion in the biggest tournament of the year since the Aussie Open.

Head of the market as usual on hard courts is Roger Federer at around [3.45], but I wont be siding with the Swiss this time, as there are too many negatives to be wading in at that price.

The world number one has a pretty decent record here as you would expect, but despite his 29-6 win/loss statistic, he hasn't won at Indian Wells since 2006 and has lost to Guillermo Canas, Mardy Fish and Andy Murray in the three years since that last triumph.

Hes not been in the best of health anyway of late and is drawn to face Murray in the semi finals, so I think Fed will be seeing this as a tune-up, as he hasn't played a competitive match since beating Murray in Melbourne in early February.

For his part, Murray should be in decent shape for this after swerving the Davis Cup shambles in Lithuania and I make the Scot favourite at [5.2], based on form, fitness, desire and the draw.

In addition to Federer's issues, you wouldn't put much faith in Nadal or Novak Djokovic on recent form and general health.

The last time that Nadal won a Tour level tournament was almost a year ago on clay in Rome and his last win on hard courts was here last year when the Spaniard was in sublime form.

Those days must seem an age ago for Nadal and he hasn't been seen on court since retiring against Murray in Melbourne and I dont see him getting past Nikolay Davydenko or Fernando Verdasco in his quarter of the draw in his current condition.

As for Djokovic, well he did win in Dubai last month, but it was a real struggle and he played horribly at times, as was further illustrated by him squeezing past John Isner in five sets on clay in the Davis Cup last week.

The Serbian seems to be finding a way to win while playing poorly, which is a good sign, but he can't keep doing it and probably won't in this sort of company.

I prefer the claims of Marin Cilic in Djokovic's quarter at around [18.0], which might be good value for a player who should be stepping up to this sort of level some time soon.

The Croatian should have won in Dubai, but a poor loss to Jurgen Melzer means that doubts remain over whether he can be more than an occasional threat and it will be interesting to see how he does here.

All of which leaves Murray as the man to beat in my book as he will be desperate to put his poor loss to Janko Tipsarevic in Dubai behind him and get back to winning ways.

Murray's early draw looks good with what should be a nice easy starter against Andreas Seppi, before likely clashes with one of a group containing Igor Andreev, James Blake, Ivo Karlovic, Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer and none of these should trouble him.

The Scot also has Robin Soderling and Jo Wilfried Tsonga in his quarter and a meet with Sod would be interesting, as the pair haven't met since the quarter finals of Memphis in 2006 when the Swede won easily.

Clearly both have improved since then and a match in the last eight here between those two would definitely be one to watch.

As far as outsiders go I am hoping for a half decent effort from Fernando Verdasco at around [50.0].

The Madrid man won in San Jose but has been indifferent since, but with only a half-fit Nadal and Davydenko (who has never made it past the last 16 here) in his quarter it might be worth a small stakes wager on the enigmatic Verdasco to come good in the desert.

Recommendations:

Back Andy Murray outright at [5.2]
Back Cilic outright at [18.5]
Longshot:
Fernando Verdasco at [50]

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