Events / Sean Calvert / 15 March 2011 /

Sean Calvert had a great day yesterday and has a couple more bets for us today, starting with a back of the often inconsistent, sometime brilliant Jurgen Melzer.

It was a great day for followers of this column yesterday, with both of my bets obliging for a handy profit.

Somdev Devvarman beat Xavier Malisse at a starting price of [2.6] and my lay of Robin Soderling to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 2-0 eased home as the German ended Soderling's tournament in straight sets.

Day six at the BNP Paribas Open promises some big names, but many one-sided looking matches, with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic all long odds on to progress.

Indeed, there are only two games scheduled for today that the layers class as competitive and of these I'm going to side with what appears to be a value bet in the Richard Gasquet v Jurgen Melzer clash.

These two flaky individuals are not to be trusted in any way, shape or form, but with a paucity of value on show elsewhere, I'm going to be backing the Austrian in this at what looks a generous [2.3].

Having got through a tough one (in terms of the match-up) against Julien Benneteau, Melzer should improve for that win and he takes on Gasquet with a 2-0 head-to-head in his favour.

Admittedly, their two previous meetings took place on clay, but Melzer won both easily and Gasquet's career record against lefties isn't as good as against right handers.

The Frenchman has done OK so far this season, but he has been fortunate in a few draws in 2011 and hasn't beaten much this year. A win over Gilles Simon, the world number 33 at the time, is his best win of the year.

Another factor is the 'Gasman's' record against top-10 opposition, which
reads 0-2 this season and 13-40 overall.

Melzer hasn't had the best results this year, but as the underdog here, the pressure will be off and the Austrian should be relaxed enough to bring his A-game to the table.

The other match where there looks a bit of value is the big-serving clash between Andy Roddick and John Isner.

Statistically, Roddick has the worst service return game of the top-10 players (with the exception of Fernando Verdasco) and Isner's is even worse, so breaks are going to be at a premium.

I expect Roddick to win in these conditions at Indian Wells, but at [1.4] it's not tempting, so the 'tie break played' and 'over 23.5 games' markets look potentially more profitable. They bet around [1.8] that this match will go 23.5 games or more and that looks the one to be on.

Recommended bets

Melzer to beat Gasquet at [2.3]
Roddick v Isner to be more than 23.5 games at [1.8]

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