Indian Wells Betting: Juan can run Rafa close

Events / Sean Calvert / 19 March 2011 /

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Del Potro is on the way back to his best

"In the Nadal v Del Potro match a lay of Rafa 2-0 at around [2.12] looks the best play."

Sean Calvert serves up a pair of semi-final bets as perhaps the four best players in the world bid for a final spot.

It's semi finals day at the BNP Paribas Open 2011 and we have, for my money, the best four players (when fully fit) in the men's game on display this evening at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

World number one, Rafa Nadal, takes on Juan Martin Del Potro first, before Novak Djokovic plays Roger Federer.

Yesterday was disappointing from a betting perspective, as Stan Wawrinka was again overawed by compatriot Federer and failed to make the handicap by a single game after electing to receive first.

We're still in profit on the week though and today, I'm going to advise a couple of bets and firstly in the Nadal v Del Potro match a lay of Rafa 2-0 at around [2.12] looks the best play.

This is by far the biggest match of Del Potro's comeback since his wrist injury and the layers have Nadal as the [1.5] uneasy favourite after his almighty struggle against Ivo Karlovic in the quarters.

The big Argentine is not quite back to his best yet, but he's not far off and even at his current level, he can cause the Spaniard problems.

Del Potro has won the pair's last three meetings, all on outdoor hard-courts, and his heavy hitting and height are great advantages on the quicker surfaces against Rafa's weapons.

We saw Del Potro blow Rafa away in New York when the Argentine was at his peak and with question marks over Rafa's form and fitness this week, Del Potro has a decent chance of the upset today.

Del Potro will have benefited from a day off after Tommy Robredo's withdrawal in the quarters and should take a set at least.

In the other semi, my outright tip for the tournament, Novak Djokovic is in irresistible form and should continue his winning streak over Federer at around [1.66] in what will be the first match that he starts as clear favourite over his rival.

Federer will lose his number two ranking to the Serbian if he's defeated and this could well be a close match, but Nole has won his last five sets against the Swiss and I don't see much changing here.

Recommended bets:
Lay Nadal 2-0 over Del Potro at around [2.12]
Back Djokovic to beat Federer at around [1.66]

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