Events / Sean Calvert / 06 April 2009 /

Sean Calvert looks back at the Miami Masters before welcoming the start of the clay court season with open arms. First up, Houston, where Jeremy Chardy can make an impact.

What a week that was in Miami!

We saw Rafa Nadal beaten by the unlikely figure of Juan Martin Del Potro and the decline of Roger Federer continued in spectacular fashion with one of the most memorable racket smashes of 2009.

Add to that Novak Djokovic's mini-resurgence with surely one of the most fortunate runs to a Masters final in recent memory and Andy Murray's sublime displays at times and you have quite a tournament on the East Coast.

This week promises something quite different as the clay court swing begins with ATP 250 events in Marrakech and Houston.

Both tournaments look extremely tough to call, but the Houston event appears to hold the most promise as far as betting is concerned.

Although a red dirt event, this one has something for the bigger hitters, as recent wins for Ivo Karlovic, Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick confirms.

Favourite and top seed in Houston is world number 14 James Blake, who reached the final here 12 months ago, losing to Marcel Granollers, but Blake is is no sort of form at the moment and appears at the age of 29 to be sliding uncontrollably down the rankings.

With a distinctly average eight wins to five losses ratio so far this season and never having emerged victorious from Houston in eight starts, Blake is certainly lay material at around [6.5].

The other seeded players in the American's half of the draw offer more appeal including the likes of Maximo Gonzalez ([26.0]), who has had some decent results on the South American challenger circuit this year including a win in Santiago last month.

The Argentinean is one for the short list, although this is his tournament debut and no South American has won this since Fernando Gonzalez in 2000.

Another Argentine clay courter in with a shout in the top half is Diego Junqueira ([81]), but after a promising 2008 his results so far this year have been poor and he's won just one match from eight attempts on the main tour in 2009.

There are another four Argentine's in the top half of the draw - Agustin Calleri ([41.0]), Guillermo Canas ([41.0]), Sergio Roitman ([81.0]) and Leonardo Mayer ([67.0]) - and all can be discounted for the simple reason that the first three are all on the slide and out of form and Mayer hasn't shown enough yet to go close at this level.

Overlooking the fading Lleyton Hewitt ([15.0]), the best bet for my money in the top half of the draw would have to be Jeremy Chardy at around [7.5].

The 22-year-old Frenchman is at a career high 45 in the world rankings right now and he has been very consistent in 2009, the highlight of his season so far being his run to the final in Johannesburg (lost to Tsonga).

Admittedly those results have been on hard courts, but as we have seen you don't need to be a red dirt specialist to win here and Chardy can play on clay too.

He beat David Nalbandian and Dmitry Tursunov at Roland Garros last year before losing out in three close sets to Nicolas Almagro, so he knows his stuff on the slower surfaces.

There are some big hitters in the bottom half of the draw, including John Isner ([34.0]), Sam Querrey ([9.0]), Kevin Anderson ([101.0]), Wayne Odesnik ([29]) and Mardy Fish ([11.0]) and of these, I can see Fish and Odesnik progressing furthest in the event based on past performances here and current form.

I don't envisage defending champion Granollers ([17]) repeating last year's success here, based on the fact that his form on clay in 2009 has been poor and he hasn't been seen on court since limping out of the first round of Indian Wells with an injury whilst 0-5 down in the first set to Steve Darcis.

Added to that, only two men in the tournament's 19 renewals have defended the title in Houston - Andy Roddick in 2002 and Peruvian Jaime Yzaga in 1993, so the signs aren't good for the Spaniard.

Of the red dirt specialists in the bottom half of the draw, Pablo Andujar ([101]) has a 0-6 record so far this season, although he did reach the semi finals of the Napoli challenger event last week and Brian Dabul ([101]) is yet to better the second round of any tournament in 2009 thus far.

Number three seed Jurgen Melzer ([10.0]) has a decent record here having reached the final in 2006 (lost to Fish) and the semi finals twice and he could cause some damage in the bottom half of the drawsheet, but as ever with the temperamental Austrian, he couldn't be backed with any confidence and his 2009 form is four wins and nine losses.

Former champion Tommy Haas ([13.0]) has been given a wild card for this event and his overall record in Houston is good, but his title winning days look to be behind him and he lost in the first round in 2008 to Igor Kunitsyn.

Added to his first round exit to world number 142 Mikhail Kukushkin in Miami, the best years are behind the German who turned 31 last week.

In conclusion then, I would advise an outright bet on Chardy at [7.5] or better to take advantage of his decent draw, as he looks the least exposed and the one heading in the right direction with youth on side.

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