Events / Sean Calvert / 17 May 2008 /

Sean Calvert wonders how much Nadal's semi-final win over Djokovic took out of the Spaniard as he prepares to meet his old nemesis Roger Federer in the final of the Hamburg Masters

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal face off on Sunday afternoon for the 16th time in the final of the Hamburg Masters in a match that will mean considerably more to the world number one than the Spaniard.

The Swiss maestro has endured a poor campaign in 2008 by his own incredibly high standards and will be desperate to dent Nadal's confidence by claiming his fifth Hamburg crown.

Last year saw Federer claim eight tour titles and suffer defeat in a further four finals, however so far this campaign he has managed just one (in Estoril) and one losing appearance in a final (Monte Carlo).

Injury and illness have certainly played their part in Federer's lack of success this season, but the overriding feeling on tour is that his aura of invincibility has gone - at least temporarily - with defeats to the likes of Radek Stepanek, Mardy Fish and Andy Murray in the last couple of months.

The shock news of Justine Henin's retirement has merely added to the idea that a changing of the guard in the upper echelons of men's and women's tennis could be upon us and does Federer have it in him to prove the doubters wrong?

Purely on the basis of this week, you would be inclined to answer in the affirmative, having breezed through to yet another Hamburg final without dropping a set, but it must be noted that Federer hasn't faced a top 10 opponent - the highest ranked player he has defeated being Jarko Nieminen at number 27 in the world - in his march to the championship match.

Nadal on the other hand was again denied a clean sweep of the red dirt Masters events by a rather painful looking hole in his foot, which put paid to his chances in Rome.

Any suggestion that JC Ferrero could beat the world number two on a level playing field are wide of the mark and Nadal's appearance in Italy has to be questioned purely on the basis of the fact that he was clearly incapacitated.

The loss to Ferrero aside, Nadal has as usual been in imperious form on the clay this year, collecting titles with alarming regularity and ease and such is his continued dominance on this surface that he goes into the final with a stellar record on clay of two losses in 108 matches.

He also has history on his side, having lost to the Swiss just once in seven outings on clay, but that was in the final here last year and how much will an epic semi final against the other of the triumvirate of leading lights in men's tennis, Novak Djokovic, have taken out of him?

The Serb and the Spaniard were on court for a shade over three hours on Saturday in a high quality encounter that Nadal edged in the decider and any normal human being would be forgiven for feeling a touch jaded the day after such a battle, but this is Rafael Nadal we're talking about here.

The world number two should start at around the [1.6] mark to emerge victorious over his great rival and is of course a worthy favourite, having beaten Federer in straight sets in their Monte Carlo final a month ago. However, the Swiss has lost just once in 30 matches at the Rothenbaum - bizarrely to Mark Philippoussis in 2002 - and he certainly looks the value at round about the [2.6] mark.

Nadal of course is a huge favourite to collect another French Open crown in a few weeks time and it's hard to see anyone - Federer included - to take three sets off him there, however it's more likely that the world number one will take a set here in Hamburg.

The best bet on Sunday therefore looks to be the [2.1] about the match going into three sets and that's where my money will be going in a match that Federer simply must perform well in to maintain any realistic chance going into Roland Garros.

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