Events / Sean Calvert / 04 May 2009 /

With no Nadal around to serve as a license to print money, Sean Calvert goes in search of the value as the ATP Tour heads to Estoril, Portugal. With inconsistency very much a trademark of Davydenko and Nalbandian, David Ferrer may well be the player to back....

It was another profitable week in Rome thanks to the man who is swiftly becoming known as 'The Bank of Nadal' in punting parlance.

My cash was never in a great deal of danger, particularly after my long shot tip Fernando Gonzalez made it through to the semis at well over [100.0] before losing out to the eventual champion.

Sadly there's no Pearl de Manacor to lump on this week, however short priced backers are likely to be all over Nadal's Rome final opponent Novak Djokovic in the new event in Belgrade at [1.55].

That's probably a fairly sound bet, but I'm not going to be investing my winnings in Serbia this week as I fancy a punt over in Estoril, Portugal.

With Serbia being a brand new event, there's no real form or court knowledge to go on, however the red dirt brigade have been plying their trade in Estoril since 1990 and there are some familiar names in the line up once more for the 2009 renewal.

Top seed is Frenchman Gilles Simon, but the world number seven has shown very little to get excited about of late, having won just one match so far on the red stuff and that was in a tie breaker in a decider against Fabio Fognini.

Hardly tournament winning form and his defeat to Mischa Zverev in Rome confirmed to me that Simon is lay material at around [8.0] at this moment in time or at the very least a player you don't want to be backing.

Vying for favouritism in Estoril are previous winners Nikolay Davydenko ([4.0]) and David Nalbandian ([5.5]), along with recent Barcelona finalist David Ferrer ([5.0]) and it's a fair bet that the title will end up in one of their hands, but which one?

Well, Ferrer has never won a match at this tournament in two attempts, but he hasn't entered since 2003 and that form can be overlooked although his memories of Estoril won't be the most positive.

The plus points for Ferrer are the fact that he is in good form, having reached the final in Barcelona and that he is nicely rested following an early exit in Rome

The scurrying Spaniard is in the top half of the draw, which includes several of his Spanish counterparts, such as Albert Montanes ([29.0]), Daniel Gimeno-Traver ([101.0]) and Oscar Hernandez ([51]); all decent red dirt exponents on their day, but unlikely to figure in the latter stages here.

Also in the top half are Simon and Nalbandian and the latter's outstanding record in Estoril makes him a must for any shortlist.

The infuriatingly inconsistent but incredibly talented Argentine has only lost one match here in 11 starts and won the title on two of his three appearances, so in contrast to Ferrer, Nalbandian must be looking forward to his return to Portuguese soil with some relish.

Nalbandian has been off the tour for a couple of weeks after a hip injury forced him out of a keenly anticipated clash with Nadal in the quarter finals in Barcelona and if he is fit he has a great chance of making it a hat-trick of Estoril titles.

He is seeded to face Ferrer in the last eight this time though and of the pair's ten meetings Ferrer leads 6-4 and has won all four on clay, which could prove decisive should the duo meet again.

The last of the three favourites is Davydenko and I gave up trying to predict how he will play years ago.

On paper he has a fine chance in the bottom half of the draw in which only Juan Carlos Ferrero, Florent Serra and Juan Monaco are clay courters of any real note.

The Russian has the kind of Estoril record that mirrors his career - 13 wins and 5 losses and he tends to either reach the final or go home after the first round. It's impossible to say which is the more likely this time and any form studying is largely futile where Davy is concerned.

Buddies James Blake ([51.0]) and Mardy Fish ([51.0]) are interesting entries in the bottom half of the draw and both can play a bit on clay when the mood takes them.

Fish is a clay court winner in Houston and Blake a finalist there, but it's more likely that the pair are making their Estoril debuts as a bit of practice for Roland Garros and it's unlikely that they will figure in the latter stages.

Monaco has claims after that win over Andy Murray in Rome gave his confidence a boost and he really should have gone on to beat Fernando Gonzalez last week; he won't find anything of Gonzo's ability in his section of the draw though and he could go far at around [8.0].

Another with claims in that bottom section of the draw at a much better price is Florent Serra, who is available to back at around [36.0] currently.

The number eight seed has a respectable record here, having reached the semi finals last year ( lost to Davydenko) and he showed his red dirt skills last month in Casablanca, losing out in the final to Ferrero.

Ferrero is another who has chances, based on that Casablanca title and previous success here, although it was a long time ago now and [17.0] seems a bit skinny for me to get involved with.

So, much depends on which Davydenko will turn up in Estoril, but my tactics will be to lay Simon and have a wager on Ferrer, with Serra being the best value outsider.

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