Events / Sean Calvert / 22 February 2010 /

The withdrawal of Roger Federer sees Andy Murray installed as favourite in Dubai. But the Brit has never been past the quarter-finals here so should bettors look elsewhere? Sean Calvert reports.

Despite Fernando Verdasco's lame effort, it was yet another successful event last week in Memphis, as my other recommended bet stormed to the final.

Yes, John Isner was available to lay at [1.04] from his original price of [15.0] when just two points away on serve from the title until the inevitable collapse happened, but he still made us a healthy profit.

We switch continents this week and it's over to the sunshine of the United Arab Emirates for the Barclays Dubai Tennis Championships.

Roger Federer's withdrawal has given the draw a bit of a lopsided look and anyone who backed Andy Murray before the Swiss pulled out could well have found themselves a bargain.

Federer has been replaced at the head of the drawsheet by Tommy Robredo - a man who has been beaten by Mishca Zverev, Florian Mayer and Santiago Giraldo in his last three events. The others in the top half, specifically Murray and Marin Cilic, now have a much easier ride with the four-times Dubai champion out with a lung infection. Murray has been installed as the favourite at around [3.25], despite his average record here and his withdrawal from Marseille last week citing fatigue.

The Scot hasn't made it past the last eight in this event yet and it's debateable how much he'll be going for this with Indian Wells three weeks away, where he was runner-up in 2009 and has points to defend.

Murray being Murray though he'll probably come out firing, but I prefer the claims of Cilic at a nicer price of around [9.6]. Now into the top 10 in the world, the Croatian should be getting into the latter stages of the bigger tournaments now and this is not a bad place to start.

He has a stellar 16-1 record in 2010 already - including two titles - with that solitary loss being to Murray in the semi-finals in Melbourne and only the Scot looks capable of stopping him in that top half.

The bottom half of the draw appears to be the tougher of the two, with defending champion Novak Djokovic a likely finalist at around [5.5], but he will have to do it the hard way. Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Nikolay Davydenko will be the Serbian's main obstacles and both are in decent nick right now. However, Davy doesn't have the best of records here and this is Tsonga's tournament debut.

After finishing 2009 like a train, Djokovic has stuttered in 2010 with disappointing losses to Tsonga in Melbourne and Mikhail Youzhny in Rotterdam. That defeat to an injured Youzhny was particularly damaging and although I expect a much better effort from the world number two here where he has an excellent 10-2 record, I'm not convinced enough to part with any of my hard-earned.

Davydenko [5.5] has twice been beaten by Feliciano Lopez in this event and also been dumped out by Olivier Rochus in 2007, but he hasn't played here since 2008 and he has the draw to do some damage with Gilles Simon the seed in his quarter.

Simon returned to the tour last week in Marseille after a long injury lay-off and he also found the 'mighty atom' Rochus too good in a straight sets defeat and a first round here against Marcos Baghdatis is not what the doctor ordered for the Frenchman.

Fellow countryman Tsonga is proving frustrating to follow and his defeat to Julien Benneteau was Tsonga at his worst, although he will no doubt have his backers at a tempting [17.0].

Recommendations:
Back Cilic outright at around [7.4]

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