Events / Sean Calvert / 21 February 2011 /

Novak's chasing a hat-trick at the Dubai Duty Free Championships but Sean Calvert believes the Swiss maestro might be the man to back this week...

The Regions Morgan Keegan Championships in Memphis turned out to be a profitable one for backers of my back to lay tip Milos Raonic, who made it all the way to the final at a big price.

The Canadian banged in over 100 aces in the tournament, including one at 150mph in the final before Roddick sneaked it with an unbelievable diving forehand deep in the decider.

Raonic traded at [2.0] from a high of [100] and was widely available at [20], so hopefully it was a good week for all, despite Roddick's win.

This week some of the top stars in the men's game make their first appearances since Melbourne at the Dubai Duty Free Championships, which is held on an outdoor hard surface.

Australian Open winner, Novak Djokovic, is also the two time defending champion here and has been put in at around [3.3] to make it a hat trick in 2011.

There is no Andy Murray though, as the Scot pulled out with a wrist injury, but Roger Federer does take part and should give his backers a profit at the end of the week thanks to a very handy draw.

The Swiss is around [3] for this and that has to be the bet given that his top section of the draw looks much easier to negotiate than that of his Melbourne conquerer, Djokovic.

Federer hasn't played in this event since losing in the first round to Murray in 2008, but he has a stellar 25-3 win/loss record in Dubai, with four titles to his name and he'll be desperate to get one over on Djokovic this week.

Fed's half of the draw contains the likes of Mikhail Youzhny, Ivan Ljubicic, Ernests Gulbis, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Dmitry Tursunov and his first round opponent is Somdev Devvarman.

Interestingly, Federer has a record of starting slowly in Dubai, with his last five first round matches here containing at least one tie break, which might be worth noting for the 'tie break played' market.

Youzhny clearly enjoys the February sunshine, having played here each year since 2002 and this will be his tenth appearance, the Russian has reached the final twice, but is around [20.0] to finally win it.

I don't see that happening though and it would be a shock if Federer didn't make the final for a sixth time in Dubai.

Djokovic would ordinarily be the bet in this, but he has tougher opposition than Federer, with an encounter with Michael Llodra (head-to-head 1-1) first up and Marcos Baghdatis, who Nole beat in the semis here last year in his quarter.

Also in the bottom half are fellow Serbian, Viktor Troicki, Tomas Berdych, and Nikolay Davydenko, along with dangerous 'floaters' such as Philipp Kohlschreiber, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Jarkko Nieminen.

Regular readers of this column will know that I like to side with the bigger priced players where possible, but I can't make a case for any of them this week unfortunately.

The only one who slightly appeals is Baghdatis, who's been showing signs of a return to his best for a little while now, but I'd want more than the [16.0] currently on offer before getting involved in the Cypriot.

Djokovic has a similarly outstanding record here as that of Federer, with 15 wins and two losses to go with his two titles and he's only been beaten here by Federer and Roddick.

With Indian Wells and Miami next on the agenda for Nole and Fed (after the Davis Cup), this week should be case of fine tuning before those Masters Series events and it looks highly likely that we'll see the pair face off for the 21st time on Sunday (Federer leads 13-7).

Federer in my view is the more likely to make the final given his opposition and he has that fine record of coming back strongly when beaten by the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray, so he is a marginal choice this week.

Recommended bet:
Roger Federer at [3.0]

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