Events / Ben Caudell / 18 August 2011 /

In form and with an impressive record at Cincinnati, is 2011 the year that Mardy Fish will triumph? Ben Caudell selects the best day four bets...

Mardy Fish (USA) v Richard Gasquet (FRA)
Mardy Fish comes into today's match-up with Richard Gasquet with some of the best hard-court form on tour. Therefore, he's the deserved favourite to make it through to the Cincinnati quarter-final stage for the third time in his career.

Fish has in fact reached the final of this Master Series event on two previous occasions. In 2003, he lost to Andy Roddick in a final set tie-break and only last year was close once again to winning the title, losing to Roger Federer in a tight three set thriller.

The head-to-head series between Fish and Gasquet is tied 2-2 but the American has a distinct advantage, having defeated his opponent in their last two matches, both on US hard courts (Cincinnati 2010, Miami 2011) in straight sets.

Although the Frenchman is on a good run of form, winning five of his last six matches, he's lost his last four in a row against Top 10 players. The Montreal finalist on the other hand, has won 19 of his last 20 when priced between (1.2 - 1.5) six of his last seven in Cincinnati and eight of his last nine in the United States.

Having annihilated Nikolay Davydenko 6-0 6-2 in the previous round, and with two hard-court wins over Gasquet by more than five games in each match, my best bet is to back Fish in the handicap market to extend his amazing run on the American hard courts.

Nicolas Alamagro (SPA) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)
With today's match the first hard-court game between this pair of Top Tenner's, Berdych will be the happier of the two, thanks to a 3-2 head-to-head series lead over Almagro with all matches taking place on the Spaniard's favoured clay-courts.

The Czech No. 01 will also be confident coming into this match-up holding better stats than his opponent, the former Wimbledon finalist has a superior Surface and Match Rating, has won 67 % of his matches played on the hard courts within the last year- Alamagro has won 60% - and has won 64% of his last 50 matches at Master Series level.

Moreover, Almagro has never knocked out a top ten player on a hard court, losing all 11 matches since 2006. My money is siding with the more reliable Berdych to make it through to the next round with a possible quarter-final against Federer to look forward to.

Recommended Bets
Back Fish -3.5 Games @ [2.22]
Back Tomas Berdych @ [1.62] to defeat Nicolas Almagro

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