Events / Ben Caudell / 16 August 2011 /

After a winning start on Monday, Ben Caudell makes a pair of selections that he believes could land us some value on Tuesday...

Our Cincinnati Daily Tips got off to a decent start yesterday with Ryan Harrison ousting Juan Ignacio Chela in straight sets 6-3 6-3 to set himself up with a daunting match against world number one Novak Djokovic in round two.

Today, I have decided to look at two matches where I believe there is value to be had due to players being slightly injured or fatigued.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) v Marin Cilic (CRO)
Marin Cilic will definitely fancy his chances after some decent performances in Montreal last week. The top Croatian served impeccably to dispatch of Andreas Seppi and Juan Martin Del Potro in rounds one and two, winning 84% and 92% of first service points respectively. He bowed out after another decent performance against eventual winner Novak Djokovic.

Tsonga went onto reach the semi-finals of Montreal, having defeated Roger Federer in the previous round, but the Frenchman looked damaged after retiring against Djokovic. He's stated on his website that he has sore biceps, needs to get treatment, take anti-inflammatories and rest his arm.

The faster Cincinnati courts will help Cilic and his impeccable serve to win cheap points. Although he holds a 2-1 losing record against the Frenchman (all three matches were played in 2007) he has won nine of his last ten against big servers and is 7-3 in all matches. Tsonga has lost five in a row when priced as favourite (1.50 - 1.999).

Jurgen Melzer (AUT) v Gilles Simon (FRA)
No surprise that Gilles Simon starts as favourite [1.61] against Jurgen Melzer who has endured a torrid, injury-plagued summer.

Simon comes into this match having won six in a row against big servers and five of his last six overall. He also holds a better surface rating and match rating (match ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player, taking into account head-to-heads). Melzer has lost four of his last five when priced as an underdog (2.00 - 2.999) and four of his last five on hard courts.

With one hard-court tournament win under his belt already this year, at the Sydney open where Simon did not a drop a set, as well as a recent title on the clay in Hamburg, a good run here could propel the Frenchman into the top ten of the world rankings.

Recommended Bets
Back Marin Cilic @ 2.50 to defeat Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Back Gilles Simon @ 1.61 to defeat Jurgen Melzer

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