Events / Sean Calvert / 17 August 2009 /

Sean Calvert is a man worth listening to at the moment when it comes to tennis betting, having predicted Juan Del Potro's win two weeks ago and run to the final last week. We're jumping the Del Potro ship this week and here's where our money should be...

Montreal proved to be yet another fine week for my investment advice, as Juan Martin Del Potro continued his great form and boosted our coffers in the process.

Despite losing in the final, Del Potro's strong showing allowed ample back to lay opportunities from a high of [26.0] down as far as [1.5] and the Argentine is now just [13.0] to win in New York.

After backing the lanky Argentine for the last two events with great success it's time to switch this week in Cincinnati where a remarkably lopsided draw has allowed for a decent opportunity or two to be had.

"Cincy" is another of the North American hard court swing's grand old tournaments, having first been staged in 1899 and this year it goes by the title of the Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000.

It's played on a pacy Decoturf surface and atmospheric conditions in Ohio at this time of the year lean towards the blistering hot, meaning that the balls fly through the air very quickly.

This was highlighted last week in the women's event where Serena Williams played possibly the worst game I've ever seen her play in defeat to Sybille Bammer. The Wimbledon champion was totally unable to control the ball (as was sister Venus) and she afterwards admitted that conditions were extremely difficult.

Add this to the fact that Murray ([4.0]), Roger Federer, Andy Roddick [20.0], Del Potro ([26.0]), Robin Soderling ([180.0]) and Fernando Verdasco ([50.0]) have been all been placed in the same half of the draw and it makes for a tough event to call.

The manner of Federer's dismal defeat to Tsonga in Montreal from 5-1 ahead in the decider smacked of an all too prevalent 'I'm only really bothered about the majors' attitude from the Swiss maestro and I can't see him busting a gut here at around [3.75].

If the aforementioned Tsonga was able to take any of his numerous chances against Murray he would surely have prevailed in their semi final as Murray served appallingly, but the Scot always seems to be able to find a way to win at the moment and he has points to defend here.

I expect the new world number two to go well again despite his Montreal exertions and he is the pick from that section of the draw, along with Roddick, who should find conditions in his favour in Cincy.

Indeed, Roddick has the perfect opportunity to take his revenge over Federer here for the Wimbledon final defeat, as they are seeded to meet in the quarter finals. I fancy Roddick to take that opportunity if it comes his way.

Murray looks to have a comfortable-looking early draw with the likes of Nicolas Almagro, Dudi Sela, Robby Ginepri, Marat Safin and Radek Stepanek the opponents prior to a likely last eight clash with Del Potro or Verdasco.

Del Potro looked physically gone towards the end in Montreal, but Murray's supreme conditioning suggests to me that he has the fitness to win this and the drive to do so having precious ranking points to defend.

The bottom half of the draw looks to be the place for the value however and one player that stands out at a massive price is James Blake at around [250.0].

The 29-year-old New Yorker has been out of action with a foot injury since losing both of his Davis Cup rubbers to Croatia in July and he has endured a pretty wretched season so far posting a 19-15 record in 2009.

Blake is one of those who can suddenly click into a groove with little warning however and I seem to recall him retiring from Montreal with an injury in 2007 after scraping past Jurgen Melzer in the first round and then going on to reach the final here in Cincy (lost to Federer) before winning the title in New Haven the week after, so don't read too much into his current form.

Another positive in Blake's favour is the Davydenko factor. Blake is seeded to face the Russian in the second round after an opener against Igor Kunitsyn (2-0 head-to-head Blake) and Davy simply hates playing the American, having chalked up an amazing 0-7 record against him. Blake even managed to beat Davy on clay this year to confirm the mental hold he has over the world number eight and should Blake prevail again, the draw could open up nicely for him.

Novak Djokovic, Tommy Robredo, Gilles Simon and Tommy Haas are the others in that section of note and on the basis that the players that can control the ball the best in these difficult conditions will prevail, it might pay to side with someone like Simon this week.

The Frenchman is another who has had a miserable season so far, but at his best he can be a threat during the American hard court swing, as he showed last year when he won the title in Indianapolis and beat Federer in Montreal on his way to the semi finals.

The world number nine has reached a Masters final before (lost to Murray in Madrid 2008) and he has a similar game to that of last year's Cincy winner Murray and at a huge price of [200], Simon might be worth a small interest.

The last section of the draw contains world number two Nadal, who will be trying to reach the final in the only Masters event that he has failed to reach the last two in so far during his career.

Opinion is divided over Nadal's fitness and form after his reappearance in Montreal, but I personally thought that he didn't look that far away from his former level so I expect him to emerge to perhaps the semi finals once more.

Advice: Back Murray at [4.0] and Blake at [250].

Best back to lay: Roddick at [20]

Best outsiders: Simon at [200] and Karlovic at [250].

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