Events / Sean Calvert / 16 August 2010 /

After Murray's heroics in Canada last week, Sean Calvert looks ahead to this week's action in Cincinatti where the big-serving and well-rested Mardy Fish looks the pick....

We were very unfortunate last week in Canada, where my two tips were both beaten in the tightest of matches by Roger Federer.

Tomas Berdych in particular will need to have a long, hard look at himself after blowing a 4-1 lead over Fed in the final set, but such is tennis and it's straight on to the American Midwest and the Western & Southern Masters in Cincinnati.

This grand old tournament has been around for over one hundred years and only Andy Murray (2008) and Thomas Enqvist (2000) have won this and not been a world number one.

Murray may yet achieve that status at some point in his career of course and sooner rather than later if he plays as he did against David Nalbandian, Rafa Nadal and Federer in Toronto last week.

The Scot has a fine 12-4 record in Cincy and he can't complain much about the draw he's been given this week, as he's been matched with Fernando Verdasco in his quarter, while Federer and Nadal are in the opposite half.

The main threat for the Scot could well come from a lively wild card entrant in Mardy Fish and after skipping Toronto to rest after a gruelling title win in Washington, Fish should be fresh and is a great outside bet at around [50.0].

The opposition looks weak in that quarter with Verdasco in no sort of form and the Spaniard also has a poor record in Cincy, so he is readily overlooked. If the Spaniard put as much effort into his tennis as he does to his Twitter page, his results might improve.

Sterner resistance is likely to be found in Ernests Gulbis, who was unlucky to be drawn against Robin Soderling first up last week and is another who might go well at around [50.0].

Much will depend on Murray's conditioning in that quarter and the adjacent section looks trappy as well, with any one of Soderling, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick, David Nalbandian, John Isner and Ivan Ljubicic with claims.

Roddick's fitness is anyone's guess after he pulled out of Toronto with some sort of glandular fever and although he says that he's fit and "ready to rock" this week, I have my doubts.

He does have a fine record here of 25-7 with two titles though and has to be respected, but the list of opposition is tough in that quarter and the value in that section probably lies with Isner at [50.0], who also took last week off.

Djokovic was as streaky as ever last week, but has been in the final here for the last two years and is a solid back-to-lay bet at [11.5] as he was last week.

Nalbandian and Ljubicic face off in the first round and the big Croatian has a handy 5-2 head-to-head lead over the resurgent Argentine, so that one could be interesting and either is a threat if in the right condition.

In the top half of the draw, Nadal, who has a very average record here, probably due to the pace of the courts, has been paired with Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, Nicolas Almagro, Marcos Baghdatis and Berdych.

The world number one has never made it past the semis in Cincy and with the exception of the unpredictable Cilic, this quarter looks a straight shootout between Rafa and the Berdman.

The Czech should have conditions in his favour here and a repeat of last year's quarter final with Nadal might just herald a different result, but it's a close call.

The final quarter is of course defending champion Federer's and lets hope he'll be ditching that awful light pink and brown outfit in Cincy this week.

The opponents whose sensibilities will doubtless be affected by Fed's clothing choice this week include Nikolay Davydenko, Sam Querrey, Gael Monfils, Philipp Kohlschreiber and improving Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Not a list to set the heart racing with Davy, as I said last week, being in one of those regular spells he has where he can barely find the court.

So, I would be surprised if Federer failed to make the last eight, but for fans of trends, the Swiss has won this in 2005, 2007 and 2009 and in all the years in between he has failed to make the quarters, with some eyebrow-raising defeats to the likes of Ivo Karlovic and Dominik Hrbaty.

Winning back to back Masters series on hard-courts is very tough to achieve and you have to go back to 2006 for the last time it was achieved on North American hard-courts (by Federer in Indian Wells and Miami), so Murray has history against him in his quest for the title in Cincy.

Indeed, only Roddick (2003), Pat Rafter (1998) and Andre Agassi (1995) have done the Rogers Cup/Cincy Masters double, so it's a tough ask for the Scot.

Fed's easy draw should see him go well again, as should Murray, but overall it's worth a small stakes wager on Fish at around [50.0] this week.

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