Events / Sean Calvert / 14 August 2011 /

Andy Murray suffered a shock first round exit last week but at his current price it's worth showing faith in him, as well as big-hitting and big-serving Croatian Marin Cilic.

Last week's main bet at the Rogers Cup, Andy Murray, was a bit of a disaster, but Mardy Fish made up for it by storming to the final at a tasty [65.0].

That final is yet to be played at the time of writing, and the tour moves on very swiftly to Cincinnati, where the second Masters 1000 event of the North American hard-court swing kicks off on Monday.

The draw has been made and it's given us a potentially explosive second round encounter, with Roger Federer likely to face Juan Martin Del Potro in his first match, assuming the Argentine gets past Andreas Seppi.

Del Potro has been strangely off colour lately, with tame losses to Ernests Gulbis and Marin Cilic in LA and Montreal and it will be fascinating to see how he fares against the former world number one.

Fed and Delpo's half also includes the significant presence of Novak Djokovic, plus Tomas Berdych, Andy Roddick, and Gael Monfils, but it's hard to see Djokovic falling early like Murray and Rafa Nadal did last week.

The world number one's quarter looks straightforward, with Monfils, Roddick, John Isner and Stan Wawrinka the opposition and surely the Serb will be too classy for that bunch, unless he gets affected by the searing heat in Ohio.

Federer will have his work cut out against Del Potro on the evidence of his error strewn performances in Montreal, but he does have points to defend in Cincy as the reigning two-time champion, so an improvement is needed from the Swiss this week.

He is 23-6 in Cincy, with four titles to his name, which is a great record and if he can find his best form then [7.0] might look quite generous, but is an on-the-slide Fed still good enough to win the big titles?

That quarter has Marcos Baghdatis, Viktor Troicki, James Blake, Berdych, Nicolas Almagro and Ivo Karlovic in it as well as Fed and Delpo, but it should be between those two for the semi final spot and the Argentine's [17.0] looks the better value.

In the bottom half of the draw, there looks to be a great chance for Murray to redeem himself after last week's surprise loss to Kevin Anderson, as the Scot's quarter looks winnable again.

An opening round clash with David Nalbandian probably wasn't what Murray wanted, but the Argentine is off the pace at the moment after injury and should be there for the taking by the Scot.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga did us proud last week by beating Federer, but his arm injury is a worry and it's unlikely he'll risk it much ahead of the US Open, so his price of around [26.0] looks short.

Some layers have Tsonga shorter than Murray in the betting for this, which I find a little strange, as surely the world number four, who has a 14-5 record here, is more likely than an injured man who has never won a match in Cincy.

David Ferrer is the other high seed in the quarter, but he's coming back from injury as well, so he's not likely to improve much on his 11-7 Cincy record. But a dark horse this week could be Marin Cilic at around [100].

The Croatian is still only 22-years-old and he's starting to show a few signs of an upturn in form again after a dip and if he can beat Tsonga in their first round clash, he has a decent chance of being the one to upset Murray.

Cilic came out on top in the only tour level meeting so far with Tsonga and with the Frenchman struggling with injury, that could be an interesting match first up.

Others in that quarter include Janko Tipsarevic, Jurgen Melzer and Gilles Simon, but a quarter final is probably the best they can hope for this week.

The final quarter is interesting, with Rafa clearly short on confidence and at around [4.5], the Spaniard is worth taking on, with Fish, Richard Gasquet, Davydenko, Michael Llodra, Fernando Verdasco, Mikhail Youzhny and Alexandr Dolgopolov all looking to take advantage.

Rafa's shock defeat to Ivan Dodig will have given heart to those listed above and Fish will fancy this after reaching two finals here previously. Plus there's the fact that Rafa has never made the final here in Cincy.

The American will be jaded after Montreal though and [42.0] looks short, but the [100.0] about Gasquet is interesting, as would be the [250.0] about Davydenko if he gets on a roll.

Djokovic is clearly the man to beat again this week, but he's never won the title in Cincy and at [2.4] he's a bit short, so it's worth giving Murray another chance at a backable [13.0], with Cilic the best value long shot.

Recommended bet:

Back Murray at [13]
Long shot: Cilic at [100]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: