Events / Sean Calvert / 22 September 2008 /

Having predicted Safina's victory las week, Sean Calvert looks to build on his success ahead of the China Open. Here's why Tommy Robredo can come good in Beijing.

After the predicted success of Dinara Safina in the Pan Pacific Open last week, it's a return to the ATP Tour this week and hopefully a similarly profitable event will be the outcome of the week's proceedings.

Of the two events starting today, the most competitive looks to be the China Open in Beijing, where six of the top 16 players in the world will be trying to earn ranking points to qualify to come back to China for the end of year ATP Masters Cup in Shanghai.

Defending champion here is Chile's Fernando Gonzalez ([5.5]), who is developing a great record in Beijing after his slightly controversial run to the Olympic Final here last month.

Gonzalez is the number three seed this time, but he will probably need to reverse a poor record against tournament favourite Andy Roddick ([3.5]) if he wants to make it through to the final this time.

A-Rod has won six of the last seven clashes with the Chilean, including a straight sets drubbing in the US Open last month and Gonzalez won't be looking forward to another meet with the American here.

Roddick famously gave the Beijing Olympics a swerve to concentrate on the US hardcourt tournaments and is also one of several players coming here on the back of Davis Cup duty.

The other major protagonists who may be a touch battle weary in addition to Roddick include number one seed David Ferrer ([5.0]); Gonzalez; Fernando Verdasco ([9.0]) and number eight seed Sam Querrey ([16.0]) - all of whom will be making the long journey to Beijing after some tough Davis Cup action.

This makes the draw a little easier to read and the top half in particular looks to be wide open for an in-form player who can be backed at around the ([10.0]) mark.

Tommy Robredo is not normally a player that I would not invest too heavily in, but under the circumstances he has an outstanding chance of adding to the title he won in Warsaw earlier this year and his seven overall.

The pin-up boy of men's tennis has seen his ranking drop over the last two years from a high of five to his current mark of 16, but he was in great form in New York, beating Marat Safin and Jo Wilfried Tsonga easily before going down in five tough sets in the searing heat to Novak Djokovic.

A repeat of that form would be good enough for a very strong showing in Beijing and the fact that he is fresher than anyone else of note in the top half bar Richard Gasquet suggests that Robredo is a solid back-to-lay bet at the current odds.

The Spaniard faces countryman Guillermo Garcia Lopez first up followed by a likely meet with out of form Korean Hyung-Taik Lee before being seeded to take on Ferrer in the quarters.

Robredo won the last clash with Ferrer, who struggled his way through the US Open before being stunned by Kei Nishikori and would be fancied to emerge victorious again.

The world number six has not played well for some time and is certainly vulnerable here, while Robredo was runner up to Gonzalez in Beijing last year and has clearly found some form at the right time as far as this event is concerned.

Mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet also meets the criteria, but cannot be recommended as a bet as his short price of [7.0] represents no value at all for the most frustrating player on tour on his debut in Beijing.

In the bottom half, Juan Carlos Ferrero is an interesting entry and would be a nice wager at around [40.0], but he has endured an injury-plagued campaign so far and this is merely a tentative first step back for 'The Mosquito', having retired from the French Open, Wimbledon and the US - the latter event without hitting a ball. He is clearly best watched on his scheduled reappearance.

The rest of the bottom section is made up of low ranked Chinese, Japanese and Korean players and it looks to be a straight shoot out between Roddick and Gonzalez or possibly Querrey for a place in the final, with Querrey the best value at around [16.0], but Robredo looks the pick for glory in China this week.

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