Events / Sean Calvert / 04 April 2011 /

We're on the red clay this week and it's Casablanca who hosts the best tournament for betting purposes. Side with the venue specialist and dirt lover, side with Albert Montanes, says Sean Calvert.

It wasn't such a great week at the Sony Ericsson Open, as Andy Murray suffered another awful first round exit in Miami, this time at the hands of Alex Bogomolov Jr, and the way the Scot is playing, Mr Bogomolov Snr could just as easily have beaten Murray.

At least Tomas Berdych gave us a run for our money in narrowly losing out to world number one, Rafa Nadal, in the last eight.

There's no such glamour on the ATP Tour this week, rather a choice of two clay-court ATP 250 events - one in Casablanca and the other in Houston - and it's the former that I think offers the best chance of profit.

The Grand Prix Hassan II, which is entirely funded by King Mohammed VI of Morocco has proved to be a tough title to defend or regain, with only one player having managed to win it twice.

Guillermo Perez-Roldan (1992/3) is the only player to have won this twice - a trend which counts out this year's favourite, Gilles Simon, who won here in 2008.

In fairness, Simon has a fantastic-looking draw in the bottom half and should by rights be a finalist again, but after his slightly lame retirement in Miami, I can see the Frenchman coming up short at around [5.0].

There's little else with any tournament-winning class in the bottom half, with the exception of Marcos Baghdatis, but the Cypriot has been awful lately with four consecutive losses as favourite at prices ranging between [1.13] and [1.45].

Baggy hasn't played a single match on clay since the French Open last year and has never reached a final on the red dirt at any level. He's also just had flu, so I won't be going anywhere near the [7.7] on offer about the number two seed.

Victor Hanescu and Potito Starace both have the ability to reach the final here on their best form, as Hanescu showed when he did it last year, but his play of late has been really poor.

The Romanian has failed to better the second round of any level of tournament since St Petersburg last autumn and has slipped to number 59 in the world on the back of a 3-8 win/loss record in 2011.

Starace meanwhile is on a five match losing streak and last won a match in Costa do Sauipe in February, but it wouldn't surprise me if he performed better here this week, as he did reach the semis last year and is the type to go an a streaky run on the clay at around [17.0].

In the top half, you have to like the chances - if fit - of number one seed Albert Montanes, who has an excellent record here despite never having won it.

The diminutive Spaniard with the incredibly low ball toss has reached a final and a semi final in his last three appearances in Casablanca and it should be Montanes who makes the final again from what looks a much tougher top half of the draw.

The winner of a likely second round clash between Montanes and Julien Bennetaeu (another former finalist) has a great chance, but Jeremy Chardy, Florent Serra, Andrey Golubev, Fabio Fognini and Pablo Andujar are all in with a shout too.

Montanes though has five ATP Tour level clay-court titles to his name since 2008 and it's possible that his retirement in Miami last week with a neck injury came with half an eye on a likely 250 ranking points up for grabs in Casablanca instead.

Golubev is a tricky one to get on the good side of, as his season record of 4-6 shows. After earning his maiden ATP title last year on clay in Hamburg, he's only played one match on the surface since - and he lost that, so he looks poor value at around [11.0].

So, it's worth taking a chance on Montanes this week, as the world number 22 should be too classy for this field on the red dirt.

Recommended bet:

Back Albert Montanes at [6.0]

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