Events / Sean Calvert / 05 July 2010 /

Not one favourite has won in 35 years of this grass court tournament being played and that's bad news for Sam Querrey, says Sean Calvert

Wimbledon is all over for another year, but the grass court season is not quite done, as there is the small matter of the only ATP tournament in the United States played on grass still to come.

Yes, it's time once more for the Campbell's Hall of Fame Tennis Championships, or more succinctly, the Newport, Rhode Island event and this is the only event of the year where I bow to a bit of superstition in my betting.

Now, I don't have a predilection towards superstition, but when a tournament has been going for 35 years and the number one seed has never won it, there's something fishy occurring.

The famed 'Casino Curse', so-called because the event is held at the adjoining Newport Casino, is still very much in operation here and indeed last year's final between Rajeev Ram and Sam Querrey saw many people lose their hard-earned by backing Querrey, but it was not to be once more.

Ram is back to defend the title he won as a lucky loser in 2010, as is the potentially cursed number one seed Querrey, along with beaten Queen's finalist Mardy Fish, who is himself a former victim of the curse.

Querrey has been installed as the [3.5] favourite here and under normal circumstances you would think was a fair enough price for a top-25 player to win an event like this, but these aren't normal circumstances.

The courts are so close together that you often have balls from the adjoining courts disrupting play and the whole atmosphere of the event is more that of an exhibition than an ATP level tournament.

This will be Querrey's third crack at the title here and he's yet to win it and the draw has placed the American with Olivier Rochus, former winner Taylor Dent and Ram, along with handy grass court players Chris Guccione and Jesse Levine.

Querrey's thoughts are probably on the upcoming American hard court season and I'm going to dismiss his chances on the basis of that and the dreaded curse.

The bottom half of the draw looks more straightforward, with Fish being the obvious choice to prevail at a price of around [4.5], but also lurking in that half is a man you would have thought would not want to see another blade of grass for quite some time.

Nicolas Mahut's recent fame thanks to that match with John Isner at Wimbledon has taken people's focus away from his handy grass court skills and solid Newport record and if he's recovered, he should go well again.

Fish's record here is a poor 7-7 and he's never been past the last-eight at Newport, but until Queen's this year he was never much of a grass court player, so you would expect an improvement.

His price is a little short though and it could pay to side with one of the bigger priced players on offer this week, such as Alejandro Falla or Frank Dancevic.

Falla of course played the match of his life against Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but I've seen him play well there before against the likes of Fernando Gonzalez and just come up short, but the ability is there and he has beaten Querrey on grass before (at Wimbledon in 2007), so around [20.0] is not a bad price.

Dancevic couldn't be recommended on recent form, as he has fallen from the mid-60's in the world to number 316 today, but he reached the final on grass at Eastbourne last year and if he gets on a roll he could go well at massive price.

So, to sum up, I would avoid backing Querrey and go for one of the bigger prices players this week, such as Mahut, Falla or Dancevic and those that scoff at the curse would do well to remember that it took the Boston Red Sox 86 years to get rid of theirs, so this one has another 50 to run!

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