Events / Ben Caudell / 18 March 2009 /

Ben Caudell tells us why the return of David Ferrer can come out on top against the serve of Andy Roddick as we reach the business end of the BNP Paribas Open.

We are now approaching the business end of the BNP Paribas Open. The big four in the men's event, Andrew Murray, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are yet to lose a set between them. All four have had convincing wins over lesser ranked players and will hope to continue their dominance through to the quarter finals.

The women's tournament has been less entertaining and definitely misses the Williams sisters. There have been a couple of shocks at this year's event: both Jelena Jankovic and Elena Dementieva were knocked out in the second round having both been given a bye in the first round. With the opening up of the bottom half of the draw, the likes of Sybille Bammer and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have managed to state claim to title proceedings. We're no closer to being able to predict the women's winner, hence the reason why in betting terms there is no clear favourite.

Today's Selections

David Ferrer (SPA) v Andy Roddick (USA) - There is definitely value in backing David Ferrer today. Not only has he a 4-2 head-to-head over the big serving American (two of these on hard court and wins from his last three), he also possesses the dogged never say die attitude that will slowly grind away at Roddick's less than consistent game.

This match will be a game of two different styles: the server and the returner. Andy relies heavily on his slam dunking first and second serves. He has won 92% of his service games this year, hitting 240 aces, and has hit only 24 double faults (Ferrer has hit 51). The Spaniard on the other hand possesses a more competent return game; he generally creates more break point chances per game than Roddick and has a higher break point conversion rate. The courts at Indian Wells are playing extremely slow in the current hot climate and this can only benefit David Ferrer's style of play.

Selection: Back David Ferrer @ [3.05] to win match
Lay Roddick @ [2.36] 2-0

Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) v Fernando Verdasco (SPA) - Verdasco is looking fitter than ever since hiring the services of Andre Agassi's former fitness coach. He glides around the court with gusto, taking every ball on the rise and commanding each and every point. He is starting to look more and more like the formidable Rafael Nadal, tirelessly moving opponents from side to side, creating angles with clinical efficiency, hitting blistering winners when required and most importantly - putting fear into his opponent's mind.

Kohlschreiber will have to be at his very best to be able to compete against the Spaniard and having gone to three sets against weaker opposition already this week, this match will prove to be extremely tough both mentally and physically for Philipp.

Selection: Back Fernando Verdasco @ [1.3] to win match
Back Fernando Verdasco 2-0 @ [1.7]

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