Barcelona Open Tennis Betting: Who can stop Nadal?
Events
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Sean Calvert /
19 April 2010 /
Unsuprisingly this is a tournament where Rafael Nadal has a rather good record, unbeaten here since 2003. After last week's performance in Monte Carlo it's hard to see who can beat the Pearl De Manacor this week but Sean Calvert will be trying nonetheless...
In last week's column I said that Monte-Carlo looked to be Fernando Verdasco's best opportunity yet of beating his Masters 1000 last eight hoodoo and that advice proved to be spot on.
The man from Madrid stormed through to the final, thrashing Novak Djokovic on the way and rewarded those who got on at the initial price of [25.0] and laid Verdasco afterwards.
We stay on the clay this week and head south to Barcelona for the Barcelona Open BancSabadell, which is an ATP World Tour 500 event and which has not unsurprisingly been the sole preserve of one Mr R Nadal in recent years.
Yes, similarly to Monte-Carlo, Rafa is going for consecutive title number six and has only been beaten once in the event - by Alex Corretja on debut way back in 2003.
So, the Pearl de Manacor has a 26-1 record here and remarkably since that loss to Corretja, Nadal has dropped just two sets in the last five years here. One to Jarkko Nieminen in 2006 and one in the final of 2008 to David Ferrer. That's 50 sets won and two lost since 2005!
All of that, plus his hammering of Verdasco on Sunday's Monte-Carlo final means that Nadal is around [1.32] for another clay court title and again there seems little to stop him doing just that.
As seems to happen so often in men's tennis events, the draw in Barcelona has been incredibly one-sided and has paired most of Nadal's big rivals in his side of the draw, although that doesn't include Roger Federer and Djokovic, who have opted not to take part in this event.
To claim his sixth straight Barcelona win, Nadal has for company in the top half David Nalbandian, Verdasco, the finalist from the last two years David Ferrer, Fernando Gonzalez and handy clay courters Tommy Robredo, Thomaz Bellucci and Albert Montanes.
All of which means that the players in the bottom half are likely to give you a better run for your money than those just mentioned and leading the way in this regard are Juan Carlos Ferrero at [25.0], Tomas Berdych at [23], Robin Soderling at [17.0] and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [80.0].
Even if one of these reaches the final though, they will still be around [8.0] if Nadal is on the other side of the net come Sunday, but it's hard to see who can beat the Spaniard on clay in this field. Only Nadal's suspect knees look capable of halting his charge this week.
In the bottom half of the draw, Tsonga displayed a good attitude and no little red dirt ability in losing a tight three-setter to Ferrero in Monte-Carlo and the pair are seeded to meet again here.
Ferrero was my longshot from last week, but that long match against Tsonga the day before meeting Nadal wasn't really helpful for 'The Mosquito', who was downed in straights by the world number three.
Tsonga is also set to meet Nicolas Almagro again in his quarter and that should be another tight battle, while Ferrero will probably face Juan Monaco again in his bid for the last eight (2-1 head-to-head Ferrero, all in 2010).
In the adjacent section of the draw, two old foes, Soderling and Berdych are seeded to meet in the last eight and the Swede won't have forgotten how he was stuffed in two easy sets by the Czech in Miami a few weeks ago.
The pair have met 10 times in their careers so far, with Soderling holding a 6-4 lead and it's one apiece on the red dirt, on which surface they haven't played each other for a couple of years.
Soderling's relatively short price is clearly based upon his Roland Garros win over Nadal last year, but I doubt he'll get such pacy clay court conditions again in a hurry and he's no certainty to reach the final, so the Swede looks poor value to me.
Lleyton Hewitt is also continuing his comeback from hip surgery and is drawn to meet Berdych in the last 16, but this is just court time for the Aussie at the moment.
So, in conclusion, it's hard to see Rafa being beaten by anything other than a physical ailment this week, but on the slim chance of him failing to make the final it might be worth small stakes on Juan Monaco to overcome last week's poor effort at around [140.0] or maybe even Tsonga to contunue his clay improvement at around [80.0].