Events / Sean Calvert / 18 April 2011 /

Sean has started the clay court season in style and just like Rafael Nadal, he means to kick on. Here's why Robin Soderling is one of two players who can challenge Rafa this week.

It was a perfect start to the clay-court season for this column in Monte-Carlo last week, with both of my recommended bets reaching the final.

This week the ATP Tour makes the short journey to Barcelona and once again, Rafa Nadal is a warm order at [1.33] to collect his sixth Barcelona Open BancSabadell title in a row.

The only man to beat the Pearl de Manacor here is Andy Murray's former coach, Alex Corretja, back in 2003 and Rafa has compiled a 25-1 record in all at the Real Club de Tenis Barcelona-1899.

He has only dropped two sets in Barcelona in the last five years - one to David Ferrer in 2008 and one to Jarkko Nieminen in 2006 - but he should at least be tested this year, as he has been drawn against a few danger men.

Robin Soderling stands out as the main threat to Rafa in the top half of the draw, as he is the last man to beat Nadal on clay, albeit that was 30 matches ago.

After a fine start to 2011, Soderling's been struggling with niggling injuries of late, but a return to the clay, the surface on which he has excelled in recent years at Roland Garros, could reinvigorate the Swede and he comes here fresh after taking last week off.

Sod, who can be backed at [24.0], also performed well here last year, reaching the final before losing to Fernando Verdasco, who at the time was on a fine run of form, but who doesn't play Barcelona this week.

Other decent clay-court performers in the top half of the draw include Thomas Bellucci, Juan Ignacio Chela, Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych, Potito Starace and Gael Monfils, but I expect the semi final to be Rafa v Soderling and in the right conditions, the Swede has a chance at least.

In the bottom half of the draw, Andy Murray's improved effort in Monte-Carlo came at a price, with an elbow injury that could see him withdraw or at least hamper his prospects of building on his semi final run last week.

One who might take advantage of the Scot's misfortune is the returning Juan Carlos Ferrero, the champion here way back in 2001, who makes his comeback to the tour after wrist and knee problems that have seen him miss eight months of tennis.

Also in Murray's quarter are Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, Nikolay Davydenko, and Alexandr Dolgopolov, so the [27.0] about Murray, which looked skinny anyway, carries no appeal at all.

Should Murray get through to the semis, the likely last four opponent would be David Ferrer or Jurgen Melzer, who are the two standouts in a poor-looking quarter.

Melzer is tough to predict, as I inadvertently proved last week, but now that he's finally shown some form in 2011, he has the quality to reach the last four and at around [110.0] he is one for the shortlist.

David Ferrer, who lost out to Nadal in the final of Monte-Carlo on Sunday has a very decent chance of facing Rafa again in another final very quickly and was beaten by the world number one in the Barcelona final in 2008 and 2009.

I'm not convinced that he represents fantastic value this week though, after a tiring tournament last week. His style of play means that he should be at least a bit tired in Barcelona and at [13.5] Ferrer is not my idea of a great bet this time.

Rafa of course will almost certainly win this, but you probably didn't need me to tell you that. There's a chance that fatigue may play a part this week and in my view the best value alternatives are Melzer and Soderling.

Recommended bets:

Back Soderling at [24.0]
Back to lay Melzer at [110.0]

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