Events / Sean Calvert / 20 April 2009 /

Sean Calvert is looking to invest his winnings from successfully backing Nadal last week to get behind David Ferrer, whose record here is good and who could make it all the way to the final before losing to...Rafael Nadal.

I'm certainly not going to win any prizes for originality for successfully predicting Rafa Nadal's win in Monte Carlo, but the 40 percent return on my cash came in very handy.

Sadly there's no chance of a repeat of those odds this week in Barcelona, as The Pearl de Manacor's latest clay court title victory has got the layers scuttling for cover.

The best price you can currently get on Nadal to collect his fifth successive Barcelona title is around [1.28] and so for a second week in a row the equation is a simple one - can anyone stop him?

The answer to that is highly unlikely, but there are a few factors in Barcelona that weren't around in Monte Carlo.

Firstly, Nadal will be tired (or as tired as Nadal ever gets) after a surprisingly tough semi final and final last week and therefore the likelihood of a retirement increases albeit only marginally.

Secondly, thanks to an embarrassingly lopsided draw, the world number one has been paired with David Nalbandian (2-1 lifetime to Nalbandian) and a few others that could give him a game on their best form.

Nikolay Davydenko and Stan Wawrinka both showed glimpses of their best on clay last week and both are in Nadal's half, as is recent Casablanca winner Juan Carlos Ferrero and fellow red dirt specialist Nicolas Almagro.

It might be stretching a point to include Richard Gasquet in that list of potential hurdles, but the mercurial Frenchman is seeded to face Nadal in the third round.

At the absolute minimum this should ensure that Nadal doesn't have the easy opening to Barcelona as he enjoyed in Monte Carlo when he was faced with the might of Juan Ignacio Chela, Nicolas Lapentti and Ivan Ljubicic first up.

All of which presents a decent back-to-lay option in the bottom half of the draw and there are several suitors for the opportunity of getting to an ATP Tour World Tour 500 clay event without having to overcome Nadal in the process.

The first of these is the number two seed Fernando Verdasco at around [14.0], but as I mentioned last week Verdasco is flattering to deceive at the moment and he has never bettered the last 16 in Barcelona.

The man from Madrid does appear to have a fairly straightforward run to the quarter finals though with only the likes of Tomas Berdych ([150.0]) and Paul Henri Mathieu ([100.0]) standing in the way of a potential last eight clash with Fernando Gonzalez ([65.0]).

I would envisage Verdasco thrashing a few before surrendering meekly around the quarter or semi final stage, possibly to Gonzalez, who himself isn't without a chance at around [65.0], but the value for my money lies in the adjacent section of the draw.

This final quarter has home favourites Tommy Robredo ([75.0]) and David Ferrer as the seeds and the latter clearly has a fine chance of reaching the Barcelona final for the second consecutive year.

The diminutive Valencian is not one to place a huge amount of trust in as his heavy defeat to Verdasco last week showed, but at around [28.0] he represents the best value to make the championship match.

After suffering an alarming slump towards the latter half of 2008 that saw Ferrer slip from number four in the world to number 12, he looks to have regained his form somewhat and a return to home soil where only Nadal has beaten him in the past two years should bring out the best in Ferrer in conditions that clearly suit his scurrying game.

He could not have wished for a kinder draw with only compatriot Robredo to trouble him and Ferrer has generally come out on top whenever the pair have met, as was the case in this event last year when Ferrer was victorious in straight sets.

Igor Andreev ([110.0]) and Robin Soderling ([150.0]) are the other seeds in that particular section and their respective records here are poor.

Andreev has never won a match here in three attempts, while Soderling has lost in the opening round in his last four ATP Tour level events and last won a match at the top level at the Australian Open, so it's fair to say that he's struggling right now.

To sum up, I would imagine that Nadal will emerge victorious once again unless probably the finest clay court player in history has a physical breakdown, but I won't be backing him at [1.28], so take Ferrer to at small stakes on a back-to lay basis in Barcelona.

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